Shares rise as trade tensions ease slightly

RECAP: Asian shares rose yesterday in line with a global relief rally as trade tensions cooled and US Federal Reserve officials indicated they would be open to cutting interest rates earlier than anticipated.

The SET index moved in a range of 1,127.46 and 1,161.03 points this week, before closing yesterday at 1,159.00, up 0.7% from the previous week, with daily turnover averaging 34.94 billion baht.

NEWSMAKERS: US President Donald Trump has signalled a potential U-turn in his trade war with China amid continued market volatility, saying the high tariffs on Chinese goods will "come down substantially, but it won't be zero".

• China has warned it will hit back at countries that make trade deals with the US that hurt Beijing's interests. At the same time, however, it is reportedly studying suspending its 125% tariff on some US imports.
• Trump said he has "no intention of firing" Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell after repeatedly criticising the head of the central bank, but he added he would like Mr Powell to be "a little more active" on cutting interest rates.
• Fed governor Christopher Waller said he'd support rate cuts if aggressive tariff levels hurt the US jobs market. Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack said a rate move could come as early as June if the Fed has clear evidence of the economy's direction.
• The Atlanta Fed now expects US first-quarter GDP to contract by 2.5% from the previous quarter, more than the 2.2% expected earlier.
• The US consumer sentiment index plummeted to a near-record low of 50.8 in April, down 6.2 points from the previous month.
• The International Monetary Fund revised down its 2025 world GDP growth outlook by half a percentage point from the previous forecast to 2.8%, citing the impact of trade and tariff uncertainty.
• Gold briefly touched $3,500 an ounce on Tuesday, as a weak dollar, Trump attacks on the Fed and trade war fears spurred safe-haven demand. Prices eased later but remained above $3,300 on Friday.
• Toyota said its sales in North America jumped 7% in March, fuelled by a last-minute rush to buy cars before new tariffs on imported vehicles kicked in.
• The US set new duties as high as 3,521% on solar imports from four Southeast Asian countries including Thailand, in response to complaints from US manufacturers. Most of the manufacturers in question are Chinese-owned.
• South Korea's economy shrank 0.2% on a quarterly basis and 0.1% year-on-year in the first quarter, slightly below market forecasts.
• The European Commission fined Apple and Meta Platforms €500 million and €200 million, respectively, for violating antitrust laws, risking potential retaliation from Trump.
• Google parent Alphabet reported a better than expected first-quarter net profit of $34.5 billion, powered by its cloud and AI operations. Overall revenue grew 12% year on year to $90.2 billion.
• Japan finally broke ground on Thursday for construction of a US$9-billion MGM venture in Osaka Bay that could become Asia's highest-grossing casino, a quarter-century after gambling resorts were first proposed.
• Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra said planned trade negotiations with the US were postponed from April 23 as Washington had asked Thailand to review the "core issues" for discussion, with a new meeting date yet to be scheduled.
• Thai exports rose for a ninth straight month, surging 17.8% year-on-year in March to a three-year high of $29.5 billion, the Ministry of Commerce said. In the first quarter, exports rose 15.2%.
• Foodpanda will stop operating its platform, food and grocery delivery services in Thailand on May 23, parent company Delivery Hero announced on Wednesday. The company had cumulative losses of more than 13 billion baht in Thailand and had failed to gain ground on rivals Lineman Wongnai and Grab.
• The Chinese tourist market continues to nosedive, posting a low for 2025 of 5,833 arrivals on April 16, compared with a daily average of 15,000 to 20,000. The Tourism Authority of Thailand said Chinese arrivals could drop to 4-5 million visitors, far short of the government's target of 7 million and last year's total of 6.7 million, amid ongoing safety concerns.
• The Ministry of Finance aims to inject over 500 billion baht into the economy to boost Thai GDP growth above 1.8%, with a focus on stimulating consumption, investment and providing soft loans to those affected by higher US tariffs.
• The IMF slashed Thailand's 2025 GDP growth forecast from 2.9% to 1.8%, citing the impact of US tariffs. Thailand is the only Asean country whose GDP projection has been cut to below 2%.
• The Thai banking industry reported marginal growth in net profit for the first quarter of 2025, primarily due to lower net interest income, aligning with a contraction in loans. Ten of the 11 SET-listed banks, excluding Thai Credit Bank, reported a combined net profit of 67.4 billion baht, representing a 4.96% year-on-year increase.
• Foreign investors were net purchasers of 70 billion baht in Thai debt instruments in the first quarter of 2025, reversing the 2024 outflow of 68 billion baht.
• The Securities Exchange and Commission is reviewing applications for 37 ThaiESGX funds from 19 asset management firms. Trading is expected to begin on May 2, with the ability to transfer from existing long-term equity funds (LTF).
• The Stock Exchange of Thailand will introduce an auto pause measure starting May 6, giving investors time to verify and manage orders for securities with abnormally high order volumes.
• Dozens of Thai companies grappling with $60 million in losses from China's ban on sugar syrup have stopped production, an industry body said, following unsuccessful negotiations with Beijing to lift the restrictions imposed because of concerns about hygiene.
• The Thai government is considering reducing visa-free stays from 90 and 60 days to 30 days after finding some foreigners taking up illegal employment. An initial assessment shows a reduction would have limited impact as tourists stay only 10 days on average.
• The Ministry of Finance said Phase 3 of the digital wallet handout will proceed with 10,000 baht payments before the end of June. The proposal is expected to be submitted to the cabinet for consideration within 1-2 weeks.
• The industrial confidence index for March fell to 91.8, from 93.4 in February, due to the March 28 earthquake that slowed economic activity, the automotive sector slowdown and new steel and aluminium tariffs in the US, the Federation of Thai Industries said.

COMING UP: On Monday, France releases employment data. On Tuesday, the US releases consumer confidence and job openings updates, and China reports manufacturing PMI. On Wednesday, Germany reports first-quarter GDP and updated inflation data; the US releases quarterly GDP and crude oil inventories, and the Bank of Japan announces interest rate decision.

• On Thursday, some stock markets including Thailand are closed on Labour Day, the US releases initial jobless claims and manufacturing PMI. On Friday, the euro zone announces updated inflation data and the US releases non-farm payrolls and unemployment figures.
• Locally, the SET on Monday holds a briefing the Thai ESG Extra Fund (ESGX). On Tuesday, Airports of Thailand has press conference. On Wednesday, The Bank of Thailand announces an interest rate decision and BBL Asset Management discusses market outlook.

STOCKS TO WATCH: InnovestX Securities says that if the Thai policy interest rate is cut next week, it could provide positive sentiment for stocks, in addition to the expected boost when Thai ESGX funds begin trading on May 2. However, ongoing uncertainty about US-China trade is a concern. As well, Q1 earnings of large listed companies are starting to arrive, which may introduce further volatility. Recommended stocks are BDMS with a fundamental target price of 32 baht, CPF (30 baht) and BCP (47 baht).

• CGS International Securities Thailand (CGSI) says uncertainty surrounding US tariffs has resulted in high market volatility. The SET index may face downside risks if US tariffs impact Thailand more than expected, along with ongoing domestic political uncertainties. On the other hand, a potential policy rate cut and government stimulus measures may provide support.
• CGSI recommends domestic defensive and high-yield plays under current conditions. Its current top picks are BDMS, BJC, CBG, CPN, MINT, MTC and PR9, and it maintains a SET index target at 1,200 points.

TECHNICAL VIEW: InnovestX Securities sees support at 1,120 points and resistance at 1,190. Kasikorn Securities sees support at 1,130 points and resistance at 1,160.