The value of Thai exports to the United States could drop by as much as as $43 billion (1.4 trillion baht) over the next decade if 36% import tariffs go ahead, say business leaders.
The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) produced the estimate on Wednesday during a briefing on the impact of President Donald Trump’s planned levies on the economy.
Kriengkrai Thiennukul, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), said the tariff hikes would place significant pressure on exports, employment and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), affecting a broad range of products.
If a 36% retaliatory tariff is enforced, Thailand’s cumulative export value to the US could drop by 1.4 trillion baht over the next decade, he said.
Thai exports to the United States were worth about $55 billion last year. The country’s trade surplus of $45 billion was the main reason Washington has chosen to apply such a high tariff rate.
It was not clear how the JSCCIB arrived at its figure, but assuming no change in the annual value of Thai exports to the US over the next 10 years, a cumulative loss of 1.4 trillion baht would amount to about 8% of the total.
According to Mr Kriengkrai, the US tariff hikes would affect vulnerable groups, particularly 3.7 million workers and nearly 5,000 SMEs that would struggle to adapt to heightened market volatility.
The private sector is adopting a wait-and-see approach pending the outcome of trade negotiations between the Thai and US governments.
For now, the panel has cut its 2025 economic growth forecast from a range of 2.4% to 2.9% to between 2% and 2.2%, assuming a baseline US tariff of 10%.
If negotiators cannot reach a compromise by early July when Trump’s 90-day pause ends, and the 36% tariff kicks in, GDP growth could fall as low as 0.7%, with annual exports potentially contracting by up to 2%.
“Over the next five years, the trade war is estimated to result in a cumulative income loss of 1.6 trillion baht,” said Mr Kriengkrai.
“It is crucial for Thailand to engage in negotiations with the US to reduce tariffs and simultaneously enhance the competitiveness of Thai businesses in a challenging global market.”
In light of these risks, the panel supports government efforts to mitigate the impacts of trade diversion triggered by US tariffs.
In particular, the JSCCIB advocates using safeguard mechanisms to protect domestic industries that may be adversely affected by an unusual surge in imports.
The committee also expressed concern over the rapid appreciation of the baht compared with regional currencies. The baht has strengthened to between 32.50 and 32.70 to the US dollar, compared with 35 baht a month ago. This threatens the competitiveness of Thai exporters, Mr Kriengkrai said.
“The Bank of Thailand should manage the currency to prevent excessive appreciation or volatility, while also addressing concerns raised by the US,” he said.