The recently approved tourism stimulus is unlikely to have a significant impact on the stagnant sector during the low season given the limited budget allocation, although aviation and hospitality stocks may benefit in the short term, says Daol Securities.
The stimulus package is part of a broader emergency response plan aimed at counteracting the economic impact of the US import tariff hikes. The tourism-related measures comprise three initiatives.
The first is "Tour Tiew Thai", a "half-half" domestic travel scheme offering incentives for domestic travellers from July to September 2025.
Participants can book up to six nights in a hotel, with the government subsidy covering 40% of the cost in primary cities, and 50% in secondary cities.
This programme's budget was cut to 1.78 billion baht from 3.5 billion, while the number of room nights subsidised was slashed from 1 million in the original plan and the number of room nights per person was trimmed from 10 to six.
The second measure is an online travel platform promotion with a budget of 800 million baht, supporting independent travellers through digital campaigns and discounts on major online travel platforms.
The third measure is an airline collaboration for the Chinese market, allotted a budget of 500 million baht to increase arrivals from China via both scheduled and charter flights.
Airlines must meet a minimum passenger load factor of 85% to qualify for government support.
Daol expects this programme to support a modest rebound in Chinese arrivals, although further details on how the incentive will be offered to travellers remain unclear.
The brokerage assigned a neutral investment weighting to the tourism sector, though it believes the scheme "could still provide a short-term lift to domestic tourism during the off-peak travel season".
Hotel operators with high domestic revenue exposure would be the main beneficiaries, Daol said in a research note.
Erawan Group (ERW), with 88% of its revenue from Thailand, stands to gain the most, followed by Central Plaza Hotel (CENTEL) at 80%, and Minor International (MINT) at 15%.
"MINT's exposure to European markets, which enter the high season in the second and third quarters, provides a buffer against the slower recovery of Chinese inbound tourism. MINT's European operations mainly cater to local tourists, and are expected to be more resilient," noted the brokerage.
"While the measures are unlikely to fully offset broader macroeconomic pressures, our analysts believe they may offer targeted support to key tourism players and help maintain industry momentum through the low season."