Halfway through US President Donald Trump’s 90-day freeze on his so-called reciprocal tariffs, a persistent gripe from businesses, consumers and governments facing them is severe uncertainty. The next 45 days may not provide much relief from the fog.
Trump himself has indicated that talks won’t lead to agreements for every nation before the July deadline, saying that 150 countries “want to make a deal” but that many will be assigned their tariff level.
“If they’re not negotiating in good faith, they are going to get a letter saying ‘here is the rate’,” said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
Kelly Ann Shaw, a partner at the law firm Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld and a former senior Trump trade adviser, said she expects a flurry of deals will come together near the end of the tariff suspension period on July 9.
“Ninety days is an incredibly ambitious period of time,” she said. “My sense is these are real negotiations for the approximately 18 key trading partners and that, after July 9, countries left on the cutting room floor will be handed a document with commitments that they can either take or leave in exchange for a new tariff rate.”
At stake in all the negotiations are more than just trophies on Trump’s trade policy mantel. Central bankers including the Federal Reserve see tariffs — and the potential for higher ones — as restraints on growth, disruptive for financial markets and contributors to inflation as they set interest rates.
The longer it takes to strike deals that lower tariffs, the longer the Fed is likely to leave rates unchanged.
Here’s a rundown of the tariffs facing some of the biggest US trading partners and the efforts made so far to avoid them:
United Kingdom: 10%
Trump hailed the May 8 announcement of a pact with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer as a “full and comprehensive” agreement despite the fact that it covers a limited number of sectors and leaves the US’s 10% baseline tariff on goods intact. It included carve-outs for Britain’s auto and steel industries, which face 25% US sectoral tariffs that sparked warnings of job losses. Still unclear are when tariff reductions would come into force and key details such as the size of a quota for UK steel exports and the nature of US security requirements regarding ownership of British steel plants.
China: 34%
Facing growing pressure from wobbly financial markets and American importers worried about shortages and higher costs, Trump announced May 12 that for a 90-day period, the US would reduce its cumulative 145% tariffs on Chinese goods and leave a 30% levy in place, while China lowered its tax on American imports by the same amount to 10%. The pause until mid-August will give Washington and Beijing time to hold a series of talks using what Bessent calls a “mechanism” to negotiate. Bessent said the “phase one deal” that Trump signed with China in January 2020 served as a template for current aspirations, though “the world has changed, products have changed, product mix has changed — so I think everything is on the table”.
European Union: 20%
Bessent on May 13 said the EU suffered from a “collective action problem” that’s hampering trade negotiations. A week later, the EU sent a revised proposal for talks to the US. There was a call scheduled for Friday, but expectations for much progress between Washington and Brussels were low, Bloomberg News reported. The European Commission’s latest proposals came in response to a paper the Trump administration shared with the bloc’s executive arm following an earlier EU proposal. One EU official described the US paper as a wish list of unrealistic demands.
India: 26%
Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal wrapped up a four-day visit to Washington this week, saying on Friday that he had a “constructive meeting” with his counterpart Howard Lutnick. Officials in India aim for the deal to come together in three phases, with an initial pact signed before July, Bloomberg News reported. Step one will cover areas including market access for industrial goods, some farm products and addressing non-tariff barriers. The second stage may be broader and more detailed, and timed for around September to November. The final leg of the deal will likely be a comprehensive agreement that would follow once there’s approval from the US Congress, possibly next year. The US and India are motivated to boost bilateral commerce as their rivalries with China intensify.
Japan: 24%
Japanese trade officials are visiting Washington this week to continue talks. Top negotiator Ryosei Akazawa, who leads Japan’s tariff task force, said earlier this month that he hopes to reach an accord with the US in June. On top of the reciprocal tariff, key issues for Japan are Trump’s 25% sectoral tariff on auto imports and Nippon Steel’s $14.1 billion bid for United States Steel. But policymakers in Tokyo are indicating a preference to take time rather than make major concessions to wrap up things up quickly. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, after a call with Trump, said Friday that “we have consistently requested the removal of tariff measures”.
South Korea: 25%
South Korean officials were also in Washington through Friday for a second round of “technical discussions.” Bloomberg News reported it was a working-level delegation holding follow-up talks. The meetings, led by Chang Sung-gil, director-general for trade policy, were designed to follow up on ministerial talks held last week in South Korea, where they agreed to focus on six areas: balanced trade, non-tariff measures, economic security, digital trade, country of origin of product and commercial considerations.
Vietnam: 46%
Vietnam said this week that it made progress in the second round of trade talks with the US. After three days of negotiations the two sides identified “groups of issues on which consensus or views were close, and groups of issues that needed further discussion”, according to a statement on the trade ministry’s website. Talks will continue in June, while technical teams will be assigned to “continue to strengthen exchanges to soon reach an agreement in accordance with the expectations and conditions of each side”, the statement said.
Thailand: 36%
Thailand expressed its readiness to hold talks with the US in Washington “soon”, Commerce Minister Pichai Naripthaphan said after meeting with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in mid-May. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra ordered officials to tighten the criteria for issuance of certificates of origin as the country prepares for talks. Thailand expects to reduce its trade gap (currently $45 billion) with the US by as much as $15 billion annually with its recent initiatives to prevent the misuse of origin rules for exports, according to Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira.
Canada
Canada has so far avoided Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, though it’s been targeted by other US trade measures. The main one is the fentanyl executive order that put a 25% tariff on most Canadian-made imports on March 4. But shortly after imposing it, Trump exempted goods covered under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Then came Trump’s additional tariffs on foreign autos, steel and aluminium, which threaten to disrupt Canada’s highly integrated market with the US. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s ultimate goal is a comprehensive trade deal, most likely an updated version of the USMCA. There’s currently no timetable for formal talks.
Mexico
As the other party to USMCA, Mexico also saw tariffs lifted on goods traded under the agreement, which Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard estimates exempts 86% of goods traded with the US. The important auto sector, however, faces a roughly 15% duty on the non-US portion of finished vehicles. Mexico is seeking preferential treatment while it collaborates with the US on security concerns, and President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Thursday she discussed the US steel and aluminium tariffs during her latest call with Trump.