RECAP: Asian equities edged down yesterday as talks between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping failed to shed light on the progress of trade negotiations. Weak US economic data also weighed on sentiment.
Thai shares were also pressured by domestic factors, led by political uncertainty, as a cabinet reshuffle is expected shortly, and a key court hearing for ex-PM Thaksin Shinawatra is due next week.
The SET index moved in a range of 1,127.57 and 1,149.68 points this week, before closing yesterday at 1,136.43, down 1.1% from the previous week, with daily turnover averaging 36.13 billion baht.
Retail investors were net buyers of 2.03 billion baht, followed by brokerage firms at 2.1 million. Institutional investors were net sellers of 1.05 billion baht, followed by foreign investors at 982.78 million.
NEWSMAKERS: President Trump described his 90-minute phone call with Xi Jinping as positive for both sides. The conversation, the first since Trump's inauguration in January, also covered rare earth elements crucial to many industries, he said.
The Congressional Budget Office estimates Trump's proposed tariff hikes would reduce economic output and raise production costs, pushing inflation up by 0.4% annually in 2025–26. However, it could also shrink the federal deficit by $2.8 trillion over the next decade.
The messy end of the bromance between Trump and Elon Musk rattled US markets, with Tesla shares plunging 14% as Trump proposed ending Musk's government contracts and subsidies, after his onetime adviser attacked the Republican tax bill.
The European Central Bank on Thursday cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2% -- the lowest since early 2023, in response to slowing inflation and trade-war threats. It also downgraded GDP forecasts to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.1% for 2026.
Bulgaria is poised to become the 21st member of the euro zone. The European Commission recommended that the nation of 6.4 million should be allowed to adopt the common currency in 2026.
The Bank of Canada on Wednesday held its key lending rate at 2.75%, saying it needed to be cautious amid continued uncertainty over trade.
US tariffs on imported steel and aluminium were doubled last week to 50% from 25% to protect domestic industries, including US Steel, in which Nippon Steel of Japan is poised to make a major investment.
The OECD slashed its annual global growth forecast to 2.9% in 2025 and 2026, citing Trump tariffs. In its previous report in March, the OECD had forecast growth of 3.1% for 2025 and 3% for 2026.
The Malaysian state oil company Petronas will cut about 10% of its workforce, or 5,000 jobs, in a restructuring to reduce costs due to falling crude prices and market volatility that has affected profits.
Reuters reported that Suzuki Motor will temporarily suspend production of its Swift model due to Chinese restrictions on rare earth exports, heightening concerns across the global automotive industry.
Vietnam Airlines has announced a joint venture with China Southern Airlines, the first such aviation partnership between the two countries.
Thailand's annual inflation rate in May was negative for the second straight month, leading the Ministry of Commerce to cut its full-year forecast to close to zero. The consumer price index dropped 0.57% in May from a year earlier, following a 0.22% fall in April.
Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra on Friday reiterated that the military was ready to defend the country's sovereignty amid a growing border dispute with Cambodia, after a two-hour meeting with the National Security Council.
S&P Global Ratings has maintained Thailand's sovereign credit rating at BBB+ and kept the credit outlook at stable.
The government has reaffirmed its commitment to concluding free trade agreement negotiations with the European Union by the end of this year.
The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking projects Thai GDP growth will be less than 1% in the second half of the year, primarily due to tariff impacts. Full-year growth is estimated at between 1.5% and 2%, down from an earlier projection of 2% to 2.2%.
The Ministry of Finance said the government's planned entertainment complexes, including casinos, could boost GDP by 0.2% to 0.8%, increase foreign tourist arrivals by 5-20% and raise low-season tourist numbers by 13%.
The Ministry of Tourism and Sports said foreign tourist arrivals in Thailand in the first five months totalled 14.36 million down 2.7% year on year. Chinese tourist numbers dropped 32.7%. May alone saw 2.26 million visitors, down 13.9% from a year ago. Malaysia replaced China as the top source country.
Seven candidates have applied to become governor of the Bank of Thailand, succeeding Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput whose term ends on Sept 30. The Ministry of Finance will check background and qualifications before presenting its list to the selection committee on June 20. Final selection is expected on July 2, followed by cabinet approval.
SET-listed Advanced Info Service (ADVANC) is expected to allocate 29.7 billion baht to acquire the 2100MHz band and a partial stake in the 2300MHz band from an auction scheduled for next month. True Corporation is expected to spend 19.7 billion baht to acquire a partial stake in the 2300MHz band.
Jakkaphong Jakrajutatip has resigned as chief executive post and other positions at SET-listed JKN Global Group along with her sister, Pimuma, after the Securities and Exchange Commission filed criminal complaints against them with the Department of Special Investigation. The charges relate to falsification and/or omission of information in financial statements.
COMING UP: On Monday, the UK reports retail sales and the New York Fed announces one-year consumer inflation expectations. On Tuesday, the UK reports May unemployment. On Wednesday, the US announces May inflation and Russia releases trade data. On Thursday, the UK reports monthly GDP and trade balance, the US releases initial jobless claims and producer prices. Friday brings German inflation, and euro zone and Japanese industrial production updates
Locally, the SET on Monday holds a briefing about May trading figures and the market outlook. On Tuesday, Onyx Hospitality Group discusses its 2025 business plan.
STOCKS TO WATCH: Kasikorn Securities recommends defensive growth stocks, each supported by unique growth catalysts, amid ongoing economic uncertainty. For example, expressway and rail operators as well as utilities are known for stable demand. Also highlighted are stocks showing earnings recovery and firms expected to benefit from tariff negotiations. Top picks for June include BEM, GULF, TIDLOR, PTTGC and TOP.
Asia Plus Securities expects the Bank of Thailand will cut rates again this year as inflation remains below target. Key beneficiaries in hire-purchase and consumer finance include THANI, MTC, TIDLOR, SAWAD, ASK and AEONTS, along with BAM and JMT in asset management. Small banks KKP and TISCO, and real estate firms SPALI, LH, AP, ORI, QH and SIRI also stand to gain. Good high-dividend and rate-sensitive stocks are INTUCH, ADVANC, SCC, BGRIM, GULF, MINT, CPALL, CRC and TRUE.
TECHNICAL VIEW: InnovestX Securities sees support at 1,100 points and resistance at 1,170. Finansia Syrus sees support at 1,120 and resistance at 1,150.