Political leaders and the public continue to debate the merits and pitfalls of the government's proposed legislation to legalise casino operation in entertainment complexes.
A group united against gambling gathered outside the parliament recently to voice opposition to the latest version of the Entertainment Complex Act, claiming it includes loopholes that would fail to stop young people from gambling.
Buddhist, Christian and Islamic groups have all urged the government to drop the bill, warning of moral decline and serious social consequences.
The bill also faces tension in the House of Representatives between the ruling Pheu Thai Party and the Bhumjaithai Party, a member of the government coalition that favours licensing online gambling.
A Senate special committee in charge of the bill called for a referendum on the project, warning the draft may contravene the constitution if passed into law.
Meanwhile, the administration of Paetongtarn Shinawatra maintains the entertainment complexes would include more than a casino, such as restaurants, bars, luxury hotels and sports venues.
The government said legalising casinos would create man-made destinations that enhance the tourism industry and the economy.
WHAT IS DEFINED AS AN ENTERTAINMENT COMPLEX AND WHAT ARE THE PROJECT TIMELINES?
According to Maybank Securities, an entertainment complex is defined as a venue that operates multiple types of entertainment businesses such as restaurants, bars, hotels, sports facilities or casinos.
The government is aggressively pushing the Entertainment Complex Act, aiming to pass the draft by the first quarter of 2026.
The cabinet approved the draft law for entertainment complexes on March 27. The next step is the first reading in the House of Representatives scheduled for July, where the principles of the bill can be approved.
"If approved, we expect bidding to occur in the latter part of the first quarter of 2026. The first complex could open by 2030, as it would take at least four years for construction once the legislation is approved by parliament," said Boonyakorn Amornsank, an analyst at Maybank Securities.
The government adopted a "4+1" model, meaning in addition to a casino, each complex would include four other components such as a large sports venue, concert hall, water and/or amusement park, and a luxury shopping mall featuring international brand stores.
Resorts would have at least four non-gaming attractions, while gaming areas can comprise a maximum of 10% of the total area of each integrated resort.
While the project has been developing in line with Maybank's projections, Mr Boonyakorn said: "political conflicts could cause delays, as the project requires effective collaboration between Pheu Thai, which oversees the Finance Ministry, and Bhumjaithai, which oversees the Interior Ministry."
Thaksin Shinawatra, a former prime minister, is generally considered the de facto leader of the ruling Pheu Thai Party.
Suksit Srichomkwan, deputy secretary-general to the prime minister, shared a similar view, noting political uncertainty could delay the project, with bidding possibly taking place in the first quarter of 2027.
In the base-case scenario, the bill could be passed within the current government's term, leaving implementation to the next administration, he said.
The capital expenditure for each large complex may reach up to 150 billion baht, 50% higher than the previously proposed budget.
MGM Resorts International and Wynn Resorts, two casino operators from the US, are considering investing in this project in Thailand, said Mr Suksit.
WHAT ARE THE ECONOMIC BENEFITS?
The Finance Ministry stated an entertainment complex can "significantly enhance revenue and increase GDP" by 0.2 percentage points during the investment period, and 0.7 percentage points after commencing operations.
Average spending per tourist is expected to increase to 66,000 baht, up from an anticipated 57,000 baht this year. The number of foreign arrivals is expected to grow by 5-10%, while tourism receipts should increase by 476 billion baht, or 15% of an estimated tourism revenue of 3.2 trillion baht, said Mr Boonyakorn.
"We expect the gambling tax to be the major contributor to state revenue, estimated to reach 12-40 billion baht a year," he said.
Recent government proposals have called for at least five complexes to be built in several provinces.
The first one could be located in either Bangkok or the Eastern Economic Corridor, according to the proposals. The initial complex must be located less than 100 kilometres from the country's three major airports (Suvarnabhumi, Don Mueang and U-tapao), according to the draft bill.
During the construction phase, contractors are likely to benefit from construction-related revenues, while banks gain from an uptick in lending activities.
The second phase would benefit the property sector, driven by rising property prices, according to Maybank.
Once a complex becomes operational, the commerce and tourism sectors should benefit from an influx of tourists, immigrants, and job seekers, said Mr Boonyakorn.
Thaksin has noted the entertainment complexes could eventually be listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
Maybank estimates one large entertainment complex would generate annual revenue of 55 billion baht. As such, the market capitalisation of the SET should increase by 194-222 billion baht for each large complex listed on the bourse.
He said Maybank's estimate includes upside from the potential migration of online gambling platforms and wealthy market clients.
ARE THERE MEASURES AIMED AT MINIMISING THE NEGATIVE CONSEQUENCES?
The draft prohibits certain vulnerable groups from entering a casino, such as individuals younger than 20 or those barred by court order. Thai nationals are required to register and pay a 5,000-baht casino entry fee.
The draft approved by the cabinet also restricts Thai gamblers from entering casinos unless they can provide proof of at least 50 million baht in bank deposits.
Maybank anticipates possible amendments to this rule during the committee selection stage.
Tip-apa Limvichai, a partner at Thai law firm Chandler MHM, said to address concerns about the negative impacts of casinos, the bill imposes strict operational and ownership regulations on casinos and their operators. For example, it prohibits operators from offering online gambling services that are not located on their premises.
Casino operators must be Thai-registered companies with at least 10 billion baht in capital. Licences are valid for 30 years, with renewal possible for a further 10 years.
Operators are required to maintain a specific ratio of Thai to foreign employees.
"While the draft act does not restrict foreign-majority ownership, amendments may be introduced during the legislative process," said Ms Tip-apa.
In addition, casino operators are prohibited from advertising or promoting gambling, except in accordance with the managing committee's guidelines.
Any licence transfer of more than 50% of the shares in a licence-holding company is restricted.
The bill also includes measures aimed at preventing gambling problems and protecting vulnerable individuals, such as self-exclusion programmes and public awareness campaigns.
These programmes can educate people about the risks associated with gambling and provide support to those struggling with a gambling addiction.
To implement and enforce the bill, the government needs to weigh promoting economic growth and ensuring social protection, while also addressing concerns about money laundering and organised crime.
"The government can address these challenges by enhancing regulatory transparency and establishing robust social responsibility programmes to mitigate the negative effects of gambling," she said.
Mr Suksit insisted the government is aware of the possible downsides of casino legalisation, including money laundering and rising crime rates.
The next draft, to be reviewed by special committees, is likely to provide more comprehensive details and address more public concerns, he said.
The project aims to add gambling revenue to the economic system that is currently being spent at casinos in neighbouring countries, said Mr Suksit.
