Thailand’s exports surged the most since early 2022 as companies rushed to stockpile goods while the Donald Trump administration’s planned tariffs are still on hold.
Shipments jumped 18.4% to a record US$31 billion in May, Commerce Minister Pichai Naripthaphan told reporters in Bangkok on Wednesday. That was the biggest gain in exports since March 2022 and the fifth straight month of double-digit gains.
Imports rose 18% to $29.9 billion last month, allowing Thailand to post a trade surplus of $1.1 billion, ministry data showed. The Southeast Asian nation had a trade surplus of $4.6 billion with the United States and a trade deficit of $4.1 billion with China in May.
The better-than-expected Thai trade performance aligns with data out of China showing a surge in its exports to Southeast Asia. According to Nomura Holdings Plc, this may be a sign of how China is rerouting its goods to other countries, particularly Thailand and Vietnam, in a bid to avoid higher US tariffs.
To clamp down on the practice, Nomura estimates the US may raise its average tariff for Southeast Asian countries to 15.5% from the current 10% baseline.
Thailand, which has been threatened with a 36% tariff, has begun its much-delayed talks with the US this week to negotiate down the levy.
Permanent Secretary for Commerce Vuttikrai Leewiraphan said on Wednesday that Thailand’s proposals are good and stand a chance to bring down the tariff to the 10% baseline.
The official proposal will be submitted to Washington on Friday after working-level talks this week, he added.
The US was Thailand’s largest export market last year, accounting for nearly a fifth of the country’s total outbound shipments. The Southeast Asian nation had a trade surplus of about $46 billion with Washington last year.
The outlook for exports in the second half will depend on the outcome of tariff negotiations with the US, the Commerce Ministry reported, adding it continues to monitor the impact of unrest in the Middle East and Thai-Cambodian border tension on trade.