With the ongoing Israel-Iran war, The growth of the Israeli tourist market in Thailand this year is projected to shrink due to flight disruptions and airfares.
At the same time, hundreds of Israelis are reported to be stranded in Phuket and Samui because flights home have been difficult to arrange, according to operators on the two southern tourist islands.
Tourism and Sports Minister Sorawong Thienthong said airspace closures have been affecting travellers from various parts of the Middle East.
He forecast an especially pronounced impact on Israeli arrivals in June and for the entire third quarter, with a 29% year-on-year decline possible.
Israel has been one of the faster-growing markets for Thailand in recent years. The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) earlier set a target 427,000 arrivals, which would be a 52% increase from 2024, said Mr Sorawong.
The TAT has now developed two scenarios that reflect possible impacts from the war. In the first one, arrivals would total 350,000, an increase of 24%, if tensions ease within the third quarter.
However, if the conflict lasts more than six months, a second scenario foresees 19% growth and arrivals of 335,000 for the year.
The TAT study suggested Israeli arrivals should still post growth for the full year following an impressive expansion of 76% in the first five months.
For the remainder of this year, factors affecting the Israeli market include travel advisories issued by many countries against visiting Israel, hampering overall travel sentiment in that region, while ongoing conflicts are expected to weaken the country’s economic growth.
Israel’s airspace has been closed since June 13, impacting El Al Airlines, which operated flights with roughly 518 seats per day to Bangkok and Phuket.
Ratchaporn Poolsawadee, vice-president of the Tourism Council of Thailand, said Koh Samui, Koh Phangan and Koh Tao had many Israelis left stranded as they were unable to catch flights back home.
Mr Ratchaporn said the accommodation he owns reported 150 room cancellations worth 1.6 million baht from Israeli tourists who could not travel to Thailand due to flight suspensions, while many other hotels faced a similar situation.
Rangsiman Kingkaew, president of the Tourism Council of Phuket, said the council has cooperated with tourism operators in the province to offer assistance for tourists who need accommodation. As this is the low season, he said there should be sufficient rooms.
Operators are more concerned about possible impacts on the overall tourism industry, particularly an oil price spike, which would result in more expensive airfares, said Mr Rangsiman.