RECAP: Asian equities fell yesterday as a lack of details from a Chinese economic conference disappointed some traders and risk appetite weakened ahead of next week's US Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.
The SET index moved in a range of 1,429.68 and 1,456.92 points this week, before closing yesterday at 1,431.67, down 1.4% from the previous week, with daily turnover averaging 39.08 billion baht.
Retail investors were net buyers of 3.1 billion baht, followed by institutional investors at 2.4 billion. Foreign investors were net sellers of 5.4 billion baht, followed by brokerage firms at 83.26 million.
NEWSMAKERS: The European Central Bank on Thursday made its fourth interest rate cut of 2024, bringing its deposit facility rate to 3% while lowering its inflation forecast. The euro zone economy is "losing momentum" as manufacturing has contracted and growth in services slowed, ECB president Christine Lagarde cautioned.
- BlackRock, the world's largest fund manager by assets, has recommended that investors "with suitable governance and risk tolerance" consider allocating as much as 2% of their portfolio to bitcoin.
- Tesla CEO Elon Musk's net worth crossed $400 billion on Thursday, the Forbes real-time billionaires list showed, boosted by a nearly 71% surge in the automaker's shares this year and the soaring valuation of his rocket company SpaceX.
- The global airline industry stands to earn $36.6 billion in net profit in 2025, up 16% from this year, driven by a record 5.2 billion passengers taking to the skies, the International Air Transport Association said on Wednesday. It expects industry revenue to exceed $1 trillion for the first time in 2025.
- China's anti-monopoly regulator says it is investigating potential antitrust violations by Nvidia, the US company that makes a vast majority of the computer chips that power artificial intelligence systems, as the Washington-Beijing chip war intensifies.
- US consumer inflation rose in line with expectations to 2.7% year-on-year in November from 2.6% in October. The producer price index rose 0.4% from a month earlier.
- The US jobs report showed 227,000 non-farm positions added in November, with unemployment at 4.2%, supporting expectations of another Fed interest rate cut next week, with cuts continuing until the third quarter of 2025.
- The Bank of Canada slashed its key policy rate by 50 basis points to 3.25% on Wednesday but indicated further cuts would be more gradual as it seeks to support growth.
- The Biden administration is reportedly weighing harsher measures against the lucrative Russian oil trade that appears to have been largely immune to US sanctions.
- China's exports and imports in November both missed expectations, official data showed, as consumer demand remains sluggish and tariff threats loom. Imports declined 3.9%, the sharpest fall since September 2023, as exports rose 6.7% in dollar terms, down from 12.7% growth in October.
- The Indonesian rupiah dropped past the key psychological level of 16,000 per dollar yesterday, escalating pressure on the central bank after it already undertook what it called "bold" moves to support the currency.
- The German online fashion retailer Zalando plans to acquire local rival About You for 1.1 billion euros to create a European platform that can better compete with Chinese e-commerce giants.
- China's central bank resumed purchasing gold for its reserves in November after a six-month pause. The return to gold buying may help stimulate demand among Chinese investors.
- Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra announced new populist measures on Thursday to boost the sluggish economy, including soft loans for community businesses, funds for villages, cheap housing for Bangkok low-income workers, energy price cuts and a flat rate for urban rail travel.
- The national wage committee has postponed until Dec 23 a decision on the minimum wage for 2025. But members have indicated that a flat rate of 400 baht a day nationwide, as promised by the government, is unrealistic.
- The cabinet on Wednesday approved more debt-relief measures covering 1.9 million debtors with 890 billion baht worth of loans. The loans, which were taken to purchase houses and automobiles and finance small businesses, will be eligible for interest suspension for three years.
- The cabinet has approved draft legislation to impose a global minimum corporate tax of 15% on multinational enterprises in line with OECD guidelines. The tax will apply to multinationals with annual global turnover of more than €750 million.
- Prime Minister Paetongtarn dismissed talk of the value-added tax rate rising to 15% from 7%. She said the idea was simply one of many topics for discussion as the finance ministry looks to rebalance the tax system.
- Consumer confidence rose for a second consecutive month to 56.9 in November, from 56.0 in the previous month, bolstered by government economic measures and tourism, the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce said.
- The SET has announced changes to the FTSE SET Index Series, effective this month, with Minor International (MINT) being included in the Large Cap Index. Cal-Comp Electronics (Thailand) (CCET) and Energy Absolute (EA) will be added to the Mid Cap Index.
- The Public Debt Management Office plans to issue 100 billion baht in sustainable bonds next year to fund the government deficit. In November it issued 30 billion baht in sustainability-linked bonds paying 2.7%.
- The Ministry of Finance is allocating 20 billion baht to purchase additional shares in Thai Airways International Plc on Dec 12, raising the ministry's stake in the national carrier to 40% from 30%.
COMING UP: On Monday, China updates unemployment data. On Tuesday, the US reports retail sales and industrial production, while Japan releases November trade figures. The UK and the euro zone update inflation on Wednesday, while the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan will announce interest rate decisions. On Thursday, the Bank of England holds a rate meeting, and the US releases revised quarterly GDP and existing home sales.
- Locally, the Exim Bank will hold a press conference on Monday, while the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organizations will host a ThaiESG Fund seminar. On Wednesday the Bank of Thailand has its last rate meeting of 2024.
STOCKS TO WATCH: InnovestX Securities recommends stocks likely to benefit from economic stimulus and household debt relief measures. Recommended commerce plays are CPALL, CPAXT, CRC, HMPRO and TNP, while tourism stocks include AWC, AOT and MINT. Stocks expected to report growth in Q4 profit and outperform the market include GULF, OSP, AMATA, AU, TIDLOR and BCP.
- Asia Plus Securities says investors could consider speculative plays on candidates to enter and exit SET50 in the first half of 2025, such as CCET, SAWAD, COM7 and BANPU, as well as firms expecting to outperform the market for the rest of 2024.
TECHNICAL VIEW: InnovestX Securities sees support at 1,430 points and resistance at 1,460. Trinity Securities sees support at 1,430 and resistance at 1,470.