Stocks make small gains amid trade talk hope

RECAP: Asian stocks notched small gains in thin trade on Friday as investors largely adopted a wait-and-see approach on tariff negotiations before making long-term bets. Some markets were closed for the Good Friday holiday.

The SET index moved in a range of 1,120.72 and 1,153.20 points this week, closing on Friday at 1,150.95, up 2% from the previous week, with daily turnover averaging 31.59 billion baht for three trading days.

Institutional investors were net buyers of 1.24 billion baht, followed by foreign investors at 432.25 million. Brokerage firms were net sellers of 1.03 billion baht, followed by retail investors at 637.37 million.

NEWSMAKERS: US President Donald Trump claimed he could sack Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell, threatening central bank independence, as he vented his frustration that the Fed was not cutting interest rates enough to help the economy.

• Mr Powell on Wednesday warned that the Fed could face a "challenging scenario" of managing both accelerating inflation and a slowing economy brought on by the impact of Trump's tariffs.
• After hailing "big progress" in Japan-US trade talks, Trump said he was "very confident" of a deal with the EU, without giving details. But questions surround the status of talks with China after Beijing indicated it had several conditions.
• While Trump has announced exemptions for Chinese imports of smartphones, computers and semiconductors, he said they would still be subject to the 20% "fentanyl tariff" applied on all Chinese goods.
• The European Central Bank cut its key interest rate a quarter point to 2.25% on Thursday, the seventh cut since June, as the economic outlook has darkened amid heightened trade uncertainty, while inflation has slowed.
• Fitch Ratings says it expects global economic growth this year to be the weakest since the 2009 global financial crisis, excluding the Covid pandemic. It projects growth to fall below 2%, down by 0.4 percentage points from its March estimate.
• The World Trade Organization forecast Trump's trade policies would shave nearly 3 percentage points off the volume of global goods trade, as tariffs raise the price of US imports, invite retaliation and slow economic activity.
• Nvidia warned it would report $5.5 billion in writedowns during the current quarter, tied to inventory and commitments for its H20 semiconductors, after Trump banned sales of the powerful AI chip in China.
• Gold prices slipped on Thursday as investors booked profits ahead of the long weekend. Spot gold fell 0.8% to $3,317.87 an ounce after touching a record high of $3,357.40 earlier in the day. Thai selling prices reached a record 53,350 baht per baht-weight (15.2 grammes) on Wednesday.
• Toyota is reportedly considering producing the next version of its top-selling RAV4 SUV in the US to lessen the hit from tariffs. It originally planned to export the new RAV4 to the US from Canada and Japan.
• Global sales of electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles rose 29% year-on-year in March, helped by growth in China and Europe, while EV growth in North America was hampered by uncertainties about tariffs, the data provider Rho Motion said. About 39% of EVs sold in the US are imported.
• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) reported a surge in net profit for the first quarter and forecast robust demand for AI technology, despite the spectre of US tariffs on the critical sector. Net profit for the first three months of 2025 rose 60.3% from a year ago to $11.1 billion.
• China's first-quarter GDP growth was 5.4% year-on-year, higher than the expected 5.1%. The industrial production index rose 7.7%, against forecasts of 5.6%, and retail sales rose 5.9%, higher than the 4.2% expected.
• Japan's core inflation accelerated in March, rising 3.2% year-on-year due to persistent increases in food costs, complicating the central bank's task of weighing price pressures against risks from higher US tariffs.
• The US issued new sanctions targeting Iranian oil exports, including small refineries in China, while Opec plans to further reduce oil production capacity to compensate for production exceeding the agreed quotas.
• China has ordered domestic airlines to suspend delivery of new Boeing aircraft to retaliate against high US tariffs on Chinese goods, and has told Chinese airlines to suspend purchases of related equipment and aircraft parts from American companies.
• Citigroup posted stronger than expected first-quarter profit, with net income climbing 21% to $4.1 billion. The third-largest US bank maintained its revenue and expense guidance for the year despite uncertainty about growth.
• US retail sales increased 1.4% in March, the most in over two years, on a jump in car purchases and other goods such as electronics, suggesting consumers were scrambling to get ahead of tariffs.
• Opec reduced its global oil demand growth forecast for this year by 150,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.3 million bpd, citing the impact of US tariffs.
• Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira will lead the Thai negotiating team to meet US officials in Washington on April 23. Thailand has submitted five proposals to reduce its $45-billion trade surplus with the US by 50% within five years.
• Among Thailand's proposals is a plan to purchase an additional one million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) worth $500 million from the US over the next five years.
• The Bank of Thailand expects GDP growth to dip to less than 2.5% this year, primarily attributed to the impact of US reciprocal tariffs on Thai imports.
• Kasikorn Research Center says the baht could appreciate past 33 to the dollar in the second quarter after the currency strengthened to a six-month high yesterday, amid the intensifying US-China trade war.
• The Bank of Thailand has reportedly shortlisted consortia led by Krungthai Bank, SCBX and Ascend Money for the country's first virtual banking licences. The official announcement will be made on June 19.
• Thailand has welcomed around 10.7 million international tourists so far this year, with a surge of 666,000 people visiting during the Songkran festival alone, the Ministry of Tourism and Sports said.
• The Tourism Department has raised its target for revenue from foreign film production in Thailand this year to 10 billion baht, from 7.5 billion last year, helped by offers of a 30% cash rebate incentive to lure large productions.
• The Finance Ministry has appointed a selection committee to choose a new Bank of Thailand governor to succeed Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput, whose five-year term will end on Sept 30.
• The value of Thailand's computer gaming market is projected to reach 36.1 billion baht this year, up 1.6% from 2024, driven by an increasing number of players, new launches and promotional campaigns.
• Bangkok Bank announced a net profit of 12.618 billion baht for the first quarter of 2025, a 19.9% increase compared to the same period last year.

COMING UP: The IMF-World Bank annual meetings open in Washington on Monday; most Western stock markets are closed for the Easter holiday. On Wednesday, the US updates the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI), new home sales and crude oil inventories. On Thursday, the US reports durable goods orders and existing home sales and Japan updates Tokyo inflation. On Friday, the UK reports monthly retail sales and Russia announces an interest rate decision.

STOCKS TO WATCH: Maybank Securities (Thailand) views the current market turbulence as an investment opportunity. Under its base-case assumption that Thailand's permanent tariff rate will not exceed 10%, it does not anticipate a significant downward revision of SET earnings per share estimates. This is because the sectors directly affected by the tariffs account for only around 10% of the overall market.

• As such, Maybank maintains its existing strategic picks including TLI, TASCO, SKY, PR9, CCET and SPRC. It has also made some portfolio adjustments by trimming large-cap defensive stocks such as OR, TRUE and SCCC and shifting focus to stocks with rebound potential such as WHA and PTTEP.
• InnovestX Securities recommends monitoring China's response to the US decision to raise import tariffs on certain goods to as high as 245%. If Beijing retaliates with further tariff hikes, it could escalate trade war tensions significantly. Expect some market volatility as investors react to bank earnings and the deadline approaches for qualifying for dividends from many listed companies. Recommended stocks are ADVANC, with a fundamental target price 310 baht, CBG (80 baht) and BTG (25 baht).

TECHNICAL VIEW: InnovestX Securities sees support at 1,115 points and resistance at 1,170. Finansia Syrus Securities sees support at 1,125 points and resistance at 1,160.