Gold prices are expected to continue climbing to US$4,000 an ounce in the medium term, driven by intensifying geopolitical tensions and a shift towards lower interest rates globally, says trader YLG Bullion and Futures.
YLG forecasts international gold prices could reach $3,700 an ounce by the second half of 2025 and may soar to $4,000 within 3-5 years, said chief executive Tipa Nawawattanasub.
The domestic gold price is expected to peak at 57,000 baht per baht-weight, up from its record high of 53,000 baht earlier this year.
"Multiple global uncertainties continue to support gold demand," said Ms Tipa.
"The Russia-Ukraine war persists, tensions between Iran and Israel are escalating, and US-China relations remain volatile. These unresolved geopolitical risks continue to make gold an attractive safe-haven asset."
She said if US President Donald Trump remains in office, his unpredictable policies, such as renewed import tariffs, could continue to rattle financial markets.
While recent talks between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping may suggest a possible easing of trade tensions, Ms Tipa said interest rate trends are likely to play a more significant role in gold's future trajectory.
YLG expects the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice this year, with further reductions likely in 2026 due to persistent economic weakness.
"The trend of interest rate cuts is expected to be a positive factor that could support a gain in gold prices," she said.
Further support comes from ongoing central bank purchases of the metal.
Many central banks are not only accumulating gold, but also repatriating their reserves, signalling growing concern over global financial instability, according to YLG.
Gold trader GCAP Gold Co Ltd said market volatility is elevated for the precious metal, fuelled by fluctuating US trade policies. For example, Trump's latest decision to double tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from 25% to 50%, effective June 4, further strained trade relations.
Trump also demanded trade partners submit revised offers before the July 8 deadline for the suspended retaliatory tariffs.
An ongoing legal battle in the US over import duties also increased uncertainty over trade.
Investors are monitoring a scheduled trade meeting between Trump and Xi, though the former recently stated that reaching an agreement would be "very difficult".
The US labour market may further influence gold prices, said GCAP, as weak job data is likely to help the metal if investors anticipate further Fed easing.
The company expects prices to remain range-bound in the near term, but sees a short-term upside supported by recent developments in US tariffs.
The downside for gold prices will be limited to $3,300 an ounce, roughly 51,200 baht per baht-weight locally, with gradual upward momentum likely resuming, noted GCAP.
Both YLG and GCAP advise investors to consider accumulating gold on price dips, especially given the strong long-term outlook.
"Gold remains a strategic asset for navigating a world full of economic and political uncertainties," said Ms Tipa.