Krungsri Research has lowered its year-end Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index target to 1,418 points from a previous forecast of 1,660, reflecting a more conservative view of Thailand's economy, lower corporate earnings than expected, and global trade-related risks.
Despite headwinds, Krungsri sees signs of improving market liquidity, thanks to new investment vehicles such as Thai ESGX funds, a proposed long-term equity savings scheme called Thailand Individual Savings Account (TISA), and a retirement lottery savings.
The research firm anticipates the Thai economy could expand by 2.7% this year. Structural reform efforts, including household debt restructuring through the "Khun Su, Rao Chuay" debt purchase initiative, are viewed as supportive over the medium term.
In addition, the continuation of large-scale infrastructure projects and Thailand's emergence as a data centre hub for Chinese and US investors are expected to support the country's S-curve growth strategy.
Draft legislation for entertainment complexes with legal casinos and the Southern Economic Corridor could also provide a lift for the economy, noted Krungsri.
The research firm recommends deep-value stocks and companies poised to benefit from an easing interest rate environment, including Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS), CP All, Minor International (MINT), Kasikornbank (KBANK), Bangkok Chain Hospital (BCH), BTS Group Holdings (BTS), JMT Network Services (JMT), and Erawan Group (ERW).
"As regulatory clarity improves and structural reforms gain traction, our analysts remain cautiously optimistic about Thailand's long-term investment outlook despite near-term market volatility," said Krungsri Research.
Meanwhile, the SET announced new regulations restricting high-frequency trading (HFT) to only SET100 stocks, aiming to strengthen market supervision and lift investor confidence.
Effective July 7, 2025, HFT investors can only purchase securities that meet certain liquidity and market capitalisation thresholds, primarily those listed in the SET100 index and related derivatives such as derivative warrants, depositary receipts, single stock futures, and exchange-traded funds.
The revision aims to mitigate price volatility in small- and mid-cap securities potentially experiencing inadequate trading liquidity, the bourse said in a statement.
Asia Plus Securities (ASPS) said the new HFT rules could level the playing field and bolster investor confidence in small- and mid-cap stocks, particularly those listed on the Market for Alternative Investment (MAI).
ASPS said 97 companies outside the SET100 have previously experienced volatility from programme trading.
"With HFT restrictions in place, these stocks may become more attractive for speculative short-term trading," noted the brokerage.
ASPS recommends CP Axtra (CPAXT), Stecon Group (STECON), PTG Energy (PTG), Precious Shipping (PSL), Thaicom (THCOM), and Taokaenoi Food & Marketing (TKN) as potential beneficiaries from the regulatory amendment.
Under the new rules, HFT investors holding securities outside the specified categories may retain or sell them, but will not be permitted to make new purchases once the regulation is in force, ASPS said in a research note.
The SET is also planning to launch its "Jump+" initiative later this month, targeting participation from 50-100 listed companies in 2025.
The three-year programme is meant to support listed firms by increasing profitability, cutting costs, and improving return on equity by offering subsidies or cost-sharing tools for the adoption of technology, including artificial intelligence solutions, by partnering with tech giants such as Google and Amazon.