Analysts have examined three possibilities regarding the Constitutional Court's decision on whether to accept the case against Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra today, hoping that in the worst-case scenario the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index should not fall below its previous low of 1,050-1,060 points.
In the case filed by 36 senators, the court is being asked to investigate the leaked audio clip featuring the premier's conversation with Cambodia's Senate president Hun Sen, for possibly breaching the constitution, lacking integrity, and violating serious ethical standards. The senators are also seeking her suspension via the court's ruling.
Thanadet Rangsithananont, director of research at Pi Securities, said there are three possible scenarios emanating from Tuesday's verdict, including the court rejecting the petition, or accepting the case but allowing Ms Paetongtarn to continue her duties as prime minister. The worst-case scenario is that the court suspends the premier from performing her duties.
"If the court turns down the case, the SET index would rise as investors' concerns about possible delays to the 2026 fiscal budget process would be eased," Mr Thanadet said.
The 2026 budget bill, totalling 3.78 trillion baht, is scheduled to be reviewed by both parliament and the Senate in August, ahead of the new fiscal year that commences on Oct 1.
"The worst case is that the premier is suspended from her duties because it would raise questions both on the 115-billion-baht economic stimulus recently approved by the cabinet and the 2026 fiscal budget. Such a ruling would adversely affect market confidence," Mr Thanadet said.
Suwat Wattanapornprom, head of the research division at Krungsri Securities (KSS), shared a similar view, saying the best-case scenario for SET is that the premier can continue to perform her duties.
"This is critical for the next two to three months as the 2026 budget bill process will proceed according to plan, minimising the possible negative consequences on the economy," said Mr Suwat.
"In the worst-case scenario, I think the SET index should not fall below its previous low of the 1,050-1,060-point range."
Asia Plus Securities said political issues must be watched closely from now on. On July 3, the Bhumjaithai Party plans to submit a no-confidence motion against Ms Paetongtarn during the parliamentary session. From July 4-30, the Supreme Court will call 20 witnesses for hearings in a case against former premier Thaksin Shinawatra.
As the political uncertainties drag on, Thailand's 2025 GDP growth may miss economists' forecasts of 2-3%, the brokerage said in a research note.