Thailand expects to have 69 million 4G and 5G subscribers comprising 60% of the 115 million total mobile subscribers by 2023, double the growth of 4G adoption from 2017, thanks to rapid demand of video consumption, says a leading Swedish network firm.
Ericsson Thailand predicts that 5G will lead to more revenue opportunities in Thailand, reaching US$2.6 billion (84.8 billion baht) locally by 2026, compared with $619 billion globally.
"The telecom regulator needs to lay out a frequency blueprint so mobile operators can manage their bandwidth sufficiently for future mobile data consumption," said Nadine Allen, president and country manager of Ericsson Thailand.
By 2023, 3G and 3.5G subscribers are expected to reach 46 million, accounting for 40% of 115 million total subscribers in Thailand.
This year, 28.5 million 4G subscribers make up 30% of 95 million total subscribers, with 3G and 3.5G comprising 66.5 million.
"The growth of 4G and 5G comes from mobile data usage, in particular mobile video such as YouTube, Facebook, Live, Line TV or other video streaming," said Wuttichai Wutti-Udomlert, head of network solutions at Ericsson Thailand.
Demand for mobile data shows up in rapid changes in mobile data plans, with the share of users selecting plans over 10 gigabytes rising from 17% in 2016 to 26% in 2017.
Ericsson Thailand forecasts smartphone subscriptions in 2023 reaching 100 million, or 87% of the 115 million total subscriptions -- up from 65 million subscribers out of 95 million in 2017, accounting for 68%.
"We believe 5G in Thailand will generate new additional revenue to mobile operators, at least 22% growth by 2026, thanks to the widespread utilisation of the Internet of Things," Mr Wuttichai said.
By 2026, he said, 5G will create $2.6 billion in revenue, with the manufacturing, energy, utility and public safety sectors making the most of the opportunity.
Mr Wuttichai said many territories are deploying new bandwidth frequency for 5G: Europe at 26-28 gigahertz, the US at 700 megahertz and China at 3.5GHz and 38-42GHz.
"Thailand can eye increasing frequency availability and device support for 5G technology and may consider terminating the 2G network," he said.
In addition, mobile operators are trying to invest in technology that increases network optimisations, such as Thin GSM for more efficient spectrum sharing, and invest in massive multiple-input and multiple-output radio technology on the 4.5G and 4.75G platforms to pave the way for 5G to be used in high-density areas.
Mr Wuttichai said adoption of 4G and 5G in Thailand is on a par with elsewhere in Asia-Pacific. The region will play a key role in 5G's spread, and estimates call for 650 million subscribers out of 1 billion globally by 2023.
In Southeast Asia, data consumption per smartphone user will increase more than five times to reach 15GB a month by 2023, from 2.7GB in 2017.
Globally, more than 20% of the world population will be covered by 5G in 2023, up from zero in 2016, and 4G will cover 85% in 2023, up from 55% in 2016.
Global mobile data traffic will hit 110 exabytes a month by 2023, of which traffic from smartphones will form 95%, with the rest from mobile PCs, tablets and routers.
Video is the key driver of mobile data demand. As found in 2017, global use of mobile data traffic is 14 exabytes per month, of which 55% is used to stream videos. Video streaming will increase to comprise 75% of 110 exabytes per month in mobile data traffic by 2023.