Power demand set to climb with GDP

Power demand set to climb with GDP

Energy demand for all segments is expected to grow by 2.1-2.4% next year to 2.81 billion barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed), says Twarath Sutabutr, the director-general of the Energy Policy and Planning Office (Eppo).

The estimate is in line with GDP growth, which is forecast in a range of 3.6-4.6% next year, he said.

Oil demand is estimated to grow by 2.1%, power demand by 4.1%, coal demand by 1.2% and renewable energy demand by 7.1%. Demand for natural gas is estimated to shrink by 1.2%.

Mr Twarath said the forecast is based on the assumption of Dubai crude oil moving in a range of US$52-$57 a barrel. The average price this year was $52.70 a barrel.

"If there is no big conflict or geopolitical tension adjacent to crude oil resources, the global oil price should not veer much from its price this year," Mr Twarath said.

A rising global oil price would push power bills in the same direction after a lag of 4-9 months, he said.

He attributed the drop in natural gas demand next year to falling demand in the transport and power-generating sectors.

Renewable power has the highest projected demand increase next year because of state support for investment in the sector.

The government aims to raise the portion of palm oil in biodiesel sold at petrol stations to 7%, known as B7.

For power demand next year, Eppo expects as 4.1% rise to 192.92 billion kilowatt-hours, largely based on the export, industrial and tourism sectors.

Eppo said energy demand this year grew by 2.4% to 2.754 boed.

Demand growth for refined oil this year is estimated at 2%, compared with petrol (3.8%), diesel (2.6%) and jet fuel (4.4%).

But demand for liquefied petroleum gas is projected to drop by 1.8% this year because of the removal of subsidies, making the price less competitive.

Power demand is expected to grow by 1.4% this year to 185.37 billion kilowatt-hours, while the peak power demand period was in May, Mr Twarath said.

Peak demand this year was 4-5% lower than the previous year because of a rise in the number of independent power suppliers (IPS) to meet rising demand.

Policymakers expect the IPS numbers to drop next year, boosting peak demand by 1.9% to 34,101 megawatts.

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