After being delayed for more than two years, construction plans for two coal-fired power plants in southern Thailand might be put back on the front burner again as their environment and health impact assessments (EHIAs) are set to be completed.
If the EHIAs are approved, construction is expected to start soon, even as opponents have threatened to stage protests to prevent the plants from being built.
Egat's assistant governor - community relation and environment, Anuchart Palakawong Na Ayudhaya
The facilities are meant to secure power supply in the South and cut dependence on natural gas, which accounts for the largest share of Thailand's energy mix. Natural gas resources in the Gulf of Thailand are projected to run out in the near future.
Previous governments have pushed construction of the plants for more than two decades.
The initial push came during 1999-2001, with development headed by two private investors and the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (Egat).
The plan to develop the first plant in Krabi was recently scrapped following strong protests from environmental groups and villagers. Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha subsequently ordered related authorities to redo the EHIA, thus delaying construction of the plant.
The second coal-fired power plant, planned for Thepha district in Songkhla, is in the final stage of its EHIA, which is due to be submitted for approval soon.
If that report is accepted, construction likewise will get started soon.
The 800-megawatt plant in Krabi and the 2,000MW plant in Songkhla have a combined development budget of 210 billion baht.
The energy policymaker's power development plan for 2015-2036 calls for total power generation capacity of 70,000MW, with coal and gas comprising 30-40% each.
The remaining supply will be secured through a combination of renewable energy and power bought from neighbouring countries.
Thailand's energy mix is 60% gas and 20% coal, with another 10% imported from hydropower plants in Laos. The remaining 10% comes from local renewable sources.
With the coal plants set to become a burning issue over the next few weeks, a recent forum held in Bangkok by the National Institute of Development Administration outlined some of the pros and cons of the projects.
CONS
ML Kornkasiwat Kasemsri, director of the Energy Policy Research Centre at Rangsit University, said no matter how modern the power generators are touted to be, coal remains a dirty source of energy.
Urith Archakosit an independent energy expert
He said the energy generated from coal will not be cheaper than that from renewable resources as the government will be forced to foot the bill from the deleterious health effects for people leaving near the facilities.
ML Kornkasiwat said the government should focus on deregulating clean renewable power-generating systems instead of lending support to such dirty sources of energy.
"Renewable power is not only clean, but also has lower costs compared with fossil-fuel-based power plants. It's time to deregulate and let people know that they can have their own power-generating systems such as solar rooftop installations," he said.
ML Kornkasiwat said peak demand for power in the South was only 2,800MW last year, while the total regional system can supply 3,531MW, so there is still room for available energy supply to absorb rising demand without needing to turn to coal-fired power plants.
He said there are also several existing fossil-fuel-based power plants that are due to be decommissioned soon, providing the government opportunities to introduce small, clean power facilities.
Assoc Prof Chalie Charoenlarpnopparut, vice-rector for student affairs and learning at Thammasat University, said there are many methods such as smart information technology that can help manage power from renewable sources, making them more stable and controllable.
He likewise said the government should focus on seeking and developing technology that supports renewable power rather than building coal-fired power plants.
Assoc Prof Chalie said Egat still has high voltage transmission lines that can send an additional 500MW of power from the central region to supply rising demand in the South.
He said the cost of transmitting power is minimal at 60-70 satang per kilowatt hour (unit), eliminating the need to build new power plants in the South.
Meanwhile, Prasart Meetam, an independent energy expert, said energy storage technology is expected to be commercially viable in the coming years. He said while Thailand is waiting for that technology to be commercialised, the South should secure energy through renewable resources.
PROS
Anuchart Palakawong Na Ayudhaya, Egat's assistant governor for community relations and the environment, said peak power demand in the South hit 2,713MW in May, while power demand is rising, on average, 4.7% each year.
That has made it necessary to build new facilities to meet rising demand.
Egat will not hesitate to scrap the two coal-fired power plant projects if renewable power can be generated sustainably, but evidence to that effect is lacking, he said.
In 2013, Thailand's southern region faced a 3-6 hour power shortage and Egat had to purchase power directly from Malaysia at a cost of eight baht per unit -- double the normal rate.
Mr Anuchart said the situation has worsened as gas resources in the Malaysia-Thailand Joint Development Area have to be shut down more frequently as the gas block is ageing and the resources are running out. That could force Egat to switch to expensive, imported liquefied natural gas.
He said that is why the coal-fired power is still necessary to securing energy supply in the region.
Assoc Prof Pinyo Meechumna, former head of Chulalongkorn University's Department of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, said there are three coal-fired power plants operating in Thailand.
He said there were thus far no reports of those facilities having adverse effects on human health.
The three coal-fired power plants are the Mae Moh power plant in Lampang and two other facilities in Rayong.
Assoc Prof Pinyo said the two coal-fired power plants slated for the South would be equipped with technology that reduces mercury emissions, making it safer for the locals.
Urith Archakosit, an independent energy expert, said demand for power in the South is growing rapidly each year because it is one of the world's top tourist destinations.
He said while renewable energy is ostensibly clean, it bears a large carbon footprint when it comes to developing related projects, especially regarding the use of silicon, glass and steel, which are used as raw materials when making solar panels.