Somkid: Full-year growth for 2017 projected at 4%

Somkid: Full-year growth for 2017 projected at 4%

Somkid: Political scene has stabilised
Somkid: Political scene has stabilised

The economy is projected to grow nearly 5% in the final quarter of 2017, leading to full-year growth of 4%, says Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak.

He is also bullish on the continuity of growth momentum into this year, predicting economic growth of nearly 5% in 2018.

"The political situation has stabilised over the past three years and the government's economic reform policy boosted economic growth to 4.3% year-on-year in the third quarter," Mr Somkid said.

The National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) reported in November that the third quarter of 2017 saw the highest growth since the first quarter of 2013, after expanding by 3.8% in the second quarter and 3.3% in the first quarter of 2017.

In the first nine months of 2017, the economy grew by 3.8% year-on-year, with the main contributors being export growth, continued expansion of private consumption and the recovering manufacturing sector.

The board forecasts GDP growth of 3.6-4.6% for 2018, up from its estimate of 3.9% growth for 2017 and 3.2% growth in 2016.

Growth will be supported by the global economic recovery; the acceleration of public investment, which will be supported by key investment projects and a higher capital budget framework; improving trends in private investment; and the continued expansion of key production sectors, the NESDB said.

"The government no longer needs to worry about economic growth because the economy has significantly improved, and economic growth momentum in 2017 is expected to propel economic growth this year to reach 5% and maintain strong growth over the next 2-3 years," Mr Somkid said.

In a separate development, the World Bank in a report titled "January 2018 Global Economic Prospects" said potential growth in Thailand, the lowest in Southeast Asia, is held back by unfavourable demographics and domestic policy uncertainty.

Thailand's economic growth potential weakened to 3.5% on average during 2013-17, close to the long-term average, after a short-lived acceleration to around 4% during 2003-07, said the World Bank.

For the rest of the region, potential growth continues to rely heavily on factor accumulation, while total factor productivity growth remains subdued. Diminishing labour supply growth is considerably offset by a higher contribution from capital accumulation, said the international lender.

Although productivity growth remained subdued, it inched up during 2013-17, led by Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam.

"In contrast to the rest of the group, Thailand experiences a broad-based decline in potential growth," the World Bank said. "This follows several years of weak confidence, investment, and foreign direct investment inflows, against the backdrop of sharp decline in labour supply growth."

The bank projects Thailand's GDP growth at 3.6% and 3.5% for this year and next, mainly propelled by export recovery and tourism expansion.

Meanwhile, economic growth among developing countries in East Asia and the Pacific is forecast to slip to 6.2% in 2018 from an estimated 6.4% in 2017.

"Risks to the outlook have become more balanced," the bank said. "Stronger-than-expected growth among advanced economies could lead to faster-than-anticipated growth in the region.

"Rising geopolitical tensions, increased global protectionism, an unexpectedly abrupt tightening of global financial conditions, and steeper-than-expected slowdown in major economies, including China, pose downside risks to the regional outlook."

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