New PDP accounts for disruptive forces

New PDP accounts for disruptive forces

The latest revision of the national power development plan (PDP), an electricity master development plan for the next 20 years, has officially begun, according to the Energy Policy and Planning Office (Eppo).

The PDP was ordered revised again by energy policymakers because of the transformation of disruptive technology. The new version will replace an existing plan written in 2014.

The new plan will run through 2036.

Eppo director-general Twarath Sutabutr said renewable energy has fast become mainstream in the global energy market over the past three years.

Development costs for this type of energy are expected to decline by half within the next few years, meaning greater competitiveness with fossil-based power.

Mr Twarath said that while renewable energy relies on unstable resources, energy storage technology with competitive cost has developed quickly.

He said the new PDP will also incorporate changes in energy consumption patterns in the global market, the fluctuation of global fuel prices and the government's investment in megaprojects such as the flagship Eastern Economic Corridor.

"China expects to be the world's second-largest consumer of liquefied natural gas (LNG), replacing South Korea in the rankings," Mr Twarath said.

The new PDP marks the first time for the integration of alternative energy development, energy savings and efficiency, and oil and gas under Thailand's energy blueprint.

The rapid rise of renewable energy has influenced power consumption in the Thai market since 2016 and is likely to take the shape of a "duck curve", when peak demand rises sharply after sundown.

Mr Twarath said solar rooftops will grow in popularity among property owners, particularly offices and factories, in the coming years and may be a severe headache for power-generation and transmission systems control.

Another change is the fast growth of independent power supply (IPS), which has generated enough electricity to feed itself over the past two years, rising from a few dozen megawatts to 2,200MW in May 2016 and 3,000MW last October.

The solar rooftop scheme was not included in the PDP, as policymakers are still screening the plan. Approval is expected soon.

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