Thailand's household debt is expected to decrease slightly this year as nominal GDP growth is forecast to offset the debt expansion ratio, says Kasikorn Research Center (K-Research).
But the think tank said household debt remains a fragile issue among certain segments and the young.
Household debt is expected to be 77-78% of GDP in 2018 as nominal GDP growth (the denominator) is anticipated to be higher than the increase in accumulated debt (the numerator), said K-Research in its report.
"But the outstanding household debt ratio, which continues to climb, reflects how the debt burden remains a fragile issue for certain households, especially those shouldering several debt liabilities," said the report.
"The young generation is also involved in rapid debt accumulation. Solving this structural problem requires cooperation from several parties."
K-Research predicts economic growth this year of 3.5-4.5%.
Thailand's household debt stood at 78.3% of GDP as of the third quarter of 2017, valued at 11.8 trillion baht, according to Bank of Thailand data.
The National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) reported in November that the third quarter of 2017 saw the highest growth since the first quarter of 2013, after expanding by 3.8% in the second quarter and 3.3% in the first quarter.
The NESDB forecasts 3.6-4.6% growth for 2018, up from its estimate of 3.9% growth for 2017 and 3.2% growth in 2016.
Despite how household debt has declined from a peak of 81.2% logged in the final quarter of 2015, a K-Research survey indicated 78% of respondents have at least one debt burden.
Based on the survey, 35.6% were classified as persons with higher monthly debt liabilities, 49.7% shoulder the same debt burden and 14.6% had lower debt liabilities.
The survey also found that those categorised as Generation Y -- people born between the early 1980s and the turn of the millennium -- have a debt service ratio of 35.2%, higher than the average of 34.6%.
For household debt in last year's final quarter, K-Research estimated a debt ratio of 78.3-78.5% of GDP on the back of seasonal growth in certain categories such as credit cards and personal loans. This could induce household loans to grow 4% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, up from 3.7% growth in the previous quarter.