The Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (Egat) plans to double transmission line capacity in the South as the region's electricity demand soars.
An Egat source who declined to be named said the two coal-fired power plants in Krabi and Songkhla are likely to be further delayed or scrapped, after the Energy Ministry said it would shelve the environmental and health impact assessment, which had been under the Environmental Impact Evaluation Bureau's consideration.
The region's power demand hit 2,713 megawatts in May 2017, slightly less than the 3,891MW in local power-generating capacity. Power demand in the South has risen 4.7% a year on average, which has made it necessary to build new facilities to meet rising demand.
As a short-term measure, in March the government will employ a demand response or special power rate discount, prompting businesses to cut consumption.
To further shore up demand, a plan is in place to delay scheduled maintenance shutdowns for facilities in the South (including the Khanom and Chana power plants). The plants will be fully stocked with bunker oil in order to replace gas, the supply of which is often disrupted.
Egat aims to double the capacity of high-voltage transmission lines in order to send energy from the central to the southern region of the country. But the authority estimates that doubled capacity can only be sustained for an additional five years because of technical limitations of the transmission lines.
The transmission line project was started by Egat last year, but the land expropriation process has been slow going.
"Egat will not hesitate to scrap the two coal-fired power plant projects if renewable power can be generated sustainably, but evidence to that effect is lacking," the source said.
Protesters against the coal-fired plants have called for more renewable power. But solar power can only be generated during the day, while biomass and biogas capacity depend on the planting seasons for palm oil and other crops.
"Power need in the South is highest at night, so forget solar power as a replacement or substitution," the source said.
In 2013, Thailand's southern region faced a power shortage in which Egat had to purchase power directly from Malaysia at a cost of eight baht per kilowatt-hour -- double the normal rate.
The situation has worsened since the gas resources in the Malaysia-Thailand Joint Development Area have been forced to shut down more frequently, as the gas block ages and its resources run out.
The situation could force Egat to switch to expensive, imported liquefied natural gas.
Long-term development will depend on political decisions, the source said. The South is a top tourism earner, with power demand set to rise.