The Commerce Ministry is raising its export growth forecast to 9% this year from 8%, boosted by the global economic recovery and the government's close cooperation with exporters to tackle obstacles and drive shipments.
Commerce Minister Sontirat Sontijirawong yesterday said despite risks from the escalating trade war, the ministry still strongly believes overall exports will exceed the original 8% growth target this year. His comments were delivered at a seminar organised by the Commerce Ministry, International Trade Promotion Department, Foreign Trade Department, the New Economy Academy and Post Today newspaper.
"The International Trade Promotion Department has already proposed growth target figures of 8-9% for consideration, but I see 9% growth as highly likely," said Mr Sontirat. "But we have already assigned related parties to study the impact of a possible trade war and monitor the deepening trade rift between the US and China."
The ministry reported last month that Thailand had fetched US$104 billion (3.46 trillion baht) in the first five months of this year, a hike of 11.6% year-on-year -- the highest rate in seven years.
Imports also rose at the same time by 16.6% to $102.15 billion, yielding a trade surplus of $1.87 billion for the period.
He said the Commerce Ministry has been working hard with the Finance Ministry to drive local economic development, particularly through state-subsidised welfare cards, to help low-income earners. Those welfare cards have been expanded to cover small-scale retail shops, food outlets and fresh markets.
"More than 15,000 small-scale retail shops, food outlets and fresh markets have applied for the government's Thong Fah Pracha Rat shop project to be eligible for state-financed welfare cards," said Mr Sontirat. "We believe the number of outlets that participate in the Thong Fah Pracha Rat shop project will hit 100,000 by year-end."
The Thong Fah Pracha Rat shops are part of a 41.9-billion-baht aid package approved by the cabinet on Aug 29 of last year, aimed at 11.7 million low-income earners -- 5 million of whom live below the poverty line. Apart from providing low-priced consumer goods, the package also includes allowances for rides on public buses and trains, as well as subsidised utility bills.
Under the aid package, the government transfers 200-300 baht a month to each welfare smart card. Recipients earning less than 30,000 baht a year get a monthly allowance of 300 baht, while those with annual earnings of 30,000-100,000 receive 200 to buy discounted goods at Thong Fah Pracha Rat shops and other designated stores.
Each cardholder also receives 1,500 baht a month to subsidise transport and 500 for inter-provincial public buses, third-class trains and local public buses and electric trains.
The government has also offered subsidies to participating shops for EDC installation.
The cabinet in January approved 35.7 billion baht for the second phase of the welfare scheme, aiming to help 1 million people cross the poverty line.
Some 5.3 million out of the 11.4 million recipients of the government's welfare and subsidy scheme are living below the national poverty line, earning less than 30,000 baht a year.
The second phase will see the government allocate 35.7 billion baht to finance 34 projects that aim to raise the income of low-wage earners.
In a related development, Mr Sontirat yesterday said the ministry is also committed to strengthening Thai small and medium-sized enterprises' (SME) competitiveness.
"There are 3 million Thai SMEs, with their share of GDP in the first quarter growing 6% to 1.74 trillion baht or 42.8% of the total. It is evident that SMEs plays a significant role in the domestic economy," he said. "The ministry has received cooperation from the Department of International Trade Promotion's New Economy Academy and the International Chamber of Commerce in France to help increase Thai SMEs' potential and exchange information on rules and regulations on trade, policies and customs formalities."
Other support includes organising activities to encourage SMEs to possess the mindset to use technology and innovate to reduce costs, increase efficiency, change business formats to increase opportunities and otherwise develop to survive in the digital era.
Banjongjitt Angsusingh, deputy permanent-secretary of the Commerce Ministry, said the value of exports by SMEs in the first five months of 2018 reached US$25.46 billion or 24.5% of total exports.
Top export markets for Thai SMEs are Asean, with shipment value reaching $7.576 billion, rising by 6% to 29.7% of total shipments. China has shipment value of $3.01 billion accounting for 11.9% of the market. Important export items include gems and jewellery, plastic, plastic products, and automotive parts and accessories. The numbers show SMEs have room to expand exports, especially in Asean, she said.