Thailand's tuna imports for raw material are expected to increase by 5% to 750,000-800,000 tonnes in 2018 as the trade war between the US and China results in greater Chinese tuna dumping in Thailand, says the Thai Tuna Industry Association (TTIA).
Last year, Thailand imported 700,000 tonnes of tuna to be processed and canned.
Because of the Sino-US trade war, the TTIA forecasts a lower price for tuna as the raw material cost decreases by 15-20% to US$1,000-1,500 a tonne from $2,300 (76,883 baht) last year.
TTIA president Chanintr Chalisarapong said China is increasingly exporting tuna for canned products to more countries, including Thailand.
Volume of tuna as a raw material is expected to increase in Indonesia, Japan, Spain, Taiwan and India, because weather conditions have been better this year than last.
"Although the sector has to face tuna dumping from China and the increase in raw materials, I think business operators can handle these impacts," Mr Chanintr said.
The TTIA announced in early 2018 that the country's canned tuna exports will increase by 6% to 90 billion baht from 80.5 billion last year.
In terms of volume, it will increase by 16% to 720,000 tonnes from 620,000 tonnes in the previous year.
"The TTIA forecasts that Thailand's canned tuna exports are unlikely to hit the target because of increasing tuna stocks, while the sector has to manage currency fluctuations stemming from the current trade war," Mr Chanintr said.
Thailand is the world's leading exporter of canned tuna products, with the US its largest export market for that product at 21%.
The Middle East represents 17% of shipments, followed by Japan (9%) and Europe (7%).
Moreover, the Thai tuna sector was threatened by a 2015 EU yellow card over illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing.
The government and private sector have since touted efforts to combat human trafficking in the lucrative fishing industry.
Thailand has since been taken off of the Tier 2 watch list in the US State Department's Trafficking in Persons Report 2018.
The annual report evaluates 187 countries and territories and ranks them into four tiers, with Tier 1 being the best and Tier 3 the worst.
"[That removal] is good news for Thailand, and it will reflect positively on the country's reputation for tuna products," Mr Chanintr said.