Q2 showing likely eclipsed Q1

Q2 showing likely eclipsed Q1

Base effect forecast to curb second half gains

Pornpen: Expansion was broader-based
Pornpen: Expansion was broader-based

The country's second-quarter economic growth outpaced the 4.8% rate in the first quarter, propelled by robust exports and stronger domestic investment and consumption, says a senior central bank official.

Thailand's economy for the April-to-June quarter continued to gain traction across the board, driven by both domestic and external demand, led by exports, domestic investment and consumption, said Pornpen Sodsrichai, director of the Economic Analysis Office at the Bank of Thailand.

"Economic growth in the second quarter fared better than the first, with broader-based expansion," she said. "But we will wait for the official announcement from the National Economic and Social Development Board."

The NESDB, the government's think tank, is due to release the country's GDP reading for the second quarter on Aug 20. The country's economy expanded at the fastest pace in five years at 4.8% in the first quarter.

The central bank also predicted the country's economic momentum would continue this half, albeit at a slower clip thanks to the high base effect, Ms Pornpen said.

The Bank of Thailand in late June upgraded its economic growth outlook to 4.4% for 2018 and 4.2% for 2019, up from 4.1% for both years, after stronger-than-expected GDP growth in the first quarter.

She said that exports, domestic investment and consumption would be the key factors driving economic expansion this half, but external risks, particularly the trade rift between China and the US, will persist, putting pressure on the Thai economy, said Ms Pornpen.

In June, the Thai economy expanded broadly, driven by both internal and external factors. The country's export and tourism growth was 10% and 11%, respectively.

Private investment expanded 4% year-on-year in June, up from 2.6% in May, because of investment in machinery and equipment. The country's capacity utilisation increased to 70% in June from 69.5% in the previous month.

Public spending, excluding transfers, rose both in terms of capital and current spending in June, albeit at a slower pace than the previous month.

Headline inflation that month decreased slightly to 1.38% from 1.49% in the preceding month, mainly because of softer fruit and meat prices on the back of oversupply, coupled with the high base effect from vegetable prices.

Ms Pornpen said amid the positive economic momentum and tourism growth in June, the ferry disaster in Phuket will take a toll on July visitor numbers. But she said the effects from that tragedy are expected to be limited to Phuket.

The central bank's survey recorded a month-on-month double-digit decline in hotel occupancy rates for foreign tourists in Phuket last month. The sharp drop was attributed to falling tourism confidence, particularly Chinese visitors, after the accident.

But the Bank of Thailand needs to update the hotel booking rate in Phuket throughout July to determine the actual impact.

Foreign tourist numbers hit 3.02 million in June, growing 11.6% year-on-year.

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