The Bank of Thailand estimates that GDP in the second half will expand at a slower pace than the first half's 4.8% because of a high-base effect, says a senior official at the central bank.
Based on the forecast of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) of 4.5% economic growth this year, growth in the second half should be 4.2% after the 4.8% showing in the first half, said Don Nakornthab, senior director for economics and policy at the central bank.
"Despite the lower growth pace in the second half, the country's economy still has rising momentum," he said. "It has been showing robust expansion on a month-to-month basis from the beginning of the year. A slower pace is expected."
The NESDB in August reported economic growth of 4.6% for the three months to June and 4.8% for the first half. Second-quarter growth was in line with the central bank's forecast.
In June, the Bank of Thailand upgraded its economic growth outlook to 4.4% for 2018 and 4.2% for 2019, up from 4.1% previously predicted for both years.
The country's export growth in the second half of this year should be slower than the first half, constrained by a high-base effect and global economic uncertainties, Mr Don said.
To achieve the central bank's projection of 9% growth for this year's outbound merchandise shipments, export growth needs to be above 7% in the second half after exceeding 10% in the first half.
Thailand's exports got off to a weaker start in the second half with an 8.3% year-on-year increase in July, according to central bank data. The Commerce Ministry and the Bank of Thailand use different bases for export and import data. The former uses customs-cleared figures, while the latter uses payment-based numbers.
"Merchandise exports expanded, albeit at a slower pace, consistent with the growth momentum in external demand," the central bank said.
Thailand's exports to the US in July shrank for the first time in 21 months because of a dip in shrimp, washing machine and solar cell shipments. This indicated that the tit-for-tat trade war between the US and China had begun to affect Thai exports, Mr Don said. The central bank will continue to monitor developments in the trade spat, he said.
Private consumption expanded strongly in all categories.
"Fundamental factors supported overall household purchasing power remaining favourable from both farm and non-farm income, coupled with the continued improvement in consumer confidence," the central bank said.
The expansion in merchandise exports and private consumption contributed to the growth of manufacturing production, especially output of automotive, electronics, and petroleum and chemical products.
Private investment indicators grew at a slow pace versus the same period last year, while public spending expanded in both capital and current spending.
The tourism sector expanded at a weaker pace, partly because of the July tour boat disaster in Phuket.
Foreign tourist arrivals rose 2.8% in July from the same period a year earlier as Chinese arrivals ebbed in the aftermath of the accident.
After seasonal adjustment, the number of foreign tourists fell 8% in July from the previous month.