Shippers maintain 9% export growth view

Shippers maintain 9% export growth view

Minimal impact seen from baht momentum

Containers sit ready for export at Laem Chabang port. The Thai National Shippers' Council remains confident that the country's export growth will reach 9% in 2018. PATTARAPONG CHATPATTARASILL
Containers sit ready for export at Laem Chabang port. The Thai National Shippers' Council remains confident that the country's export growth will reach 9% in 2018. PATTARAPONG CHATPATTARASILL

Despite lingering concerns about baht appreciation in the second half, the Thai National Shippers' Council (TNSC) remains confident that the country's full-year export growth can hit 9%.

According to TNSC chairwoman Ghanyapad Tantipipatpong, the baht is expected to strengthen further against the US dollar because foreign capital inflows will resume to emerging markets with strong economic fundamentals, including Thailand.

Meanwhile, Turkey's currency crisis has brought fears of mounting financial risks among weaker emerging markets, sending the US dollar to a two-week high.

The TNSC expects the Bank of Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee to raise the policy rate, attracting capital inflows and shoring up the baht, Ms Ghanyapad said.

Such a move "might affect overall export value in baht terms", she said.

The Commerce Ministry reported on Aug 22 that exports grew for a 17th straight month in July, elevating their performance in the first seven months to a seven-year high.

Customs-cleared exports rose 8.3% year-on-year in July, fetching US$20.4 billion, after growing 8.2% in June and 11.4% in May.

Exports in baht terms rose by 4.1% compared with the same month of last year, to 662.18 billion baht.

Shipments to most markets except the Middle East and the US saw expansion, with extraordinary growth seen in Asean, India, South Asia, Russia (and the Commonwealth of Independent States) and Japan, which witnessed double-digit rises.

Shipments to the US dropped for the first time in 21 months to $2.25 billion, while those to the Middle East fell 9.4% to $689 million.

Ms Ghanyapad said overall exports in July performed well, while border trade with Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam recorded double-digit growth.

"But the global economy is facing pressure from trade war issues that are expected to impact the supply chain worldwide," she said.

In July, imports rose 10.5% year-on-year to $20.94 billion, for a trade deficit of $516 million.

In the first seven months of 2018, exports rose by 10.6% year-on-year to $146.23 billion. Exports in baht terms edged up 1.2% in the same period to 4.59 trillion baht.

Imports rose by 14.8% to $143.29 billion, yielding a seven-month trade surplus of $2.93 billion.

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