Export growth decelerates

Export growth decelerates

Exports rose for an 18th straight month in August but eased from the previous month's growth figure, due to a bigger base and the negative impact of the trade row between the US and China.

The Commerce Ministry reported on Friday that customs-cleared exports in August rose by 6.7% year-on-year, fetching US$22.8 billion, after growing 8.3% year-on-year in July, 8.2% in June and 11.4% in May.

Exports in baht terms rose by 6.1% from the same month last year to 755 billion baht.

Pimchanok Vonkorpon, director-general of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office, said exports registered healthy expansion in almost every market, led by Asean, Japan and India with double-digit growth.

Exports to Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and the Philippines jumped 35.5% for the month, while those to Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam surged 32.5%, the highest rates in the past 85 and 78 months, respectively.

Other mature and dynamic export markets also saw gains, including the US after a July regression.

Shipments of agricultural and agro-industrial products expanded 4.1%. High-performing exports included frozen and processed fruits and vegetables (+16.1%), rice (+9.1%), cassava products (+19.4%) and beverages (+39%).

Industrial products registered moderate growth for an 18th straight month at 5.8%, led by exports of automobiles and parts (+19%) and oil-related products (+21.8%), whose prices were supported by higher fuel prices compared with last year.

Additionally, demand for chemical products and polyethylene resin as part of production input is increasing. Their growth was 3.9% and 20.8%, respectively.

In August, imports rose 22.8% year-on-year to $23.38 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $588 million.

For the first eight months of 2018, exports rose 10% from the same period last year to $169.03 billion.

Exports in baht terms also edged up 1.9% from the same period of last year to 5.3 trillion baht. Imports rose for the same period by 15.9% to $166.67 billion, yielding a trade surplus of $2.35 billion.

"Thailand's exports in August saw some negative impacts from the so-called trade war between the US and other countries, in particular China, but such effects were confined mainly to the products that were subject to increased duties by the US -- for example, solar cells and some steel products and export of intermediary electronic parts to China only," Ms Pimchanok said. "Such limited effect is quite a relief to the ministry."

In addition, a clearer political roadmap has proved positive for consumer and business sentiment.

"I believe exports for the remainder of the year should grow 9% easily," Ms Pimchanok said.

Sompop Manarungsan, president of the Panyapiwat Institute of Management, said slower export growth came quickly, so all responsible parties must keep a close watch on the extent of the impact of the trade war on China's shipments.

If the impact turns out to be serious, Thailand and Japan may fall into the trap as links in the supply chain, he said.

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