Recap: Global stock markets rallied ahead of the upcoming US-China trade negotiations amid reports of easing tensions. But investor confidence remains fragile as market participants are monitoring the US government shutdown and a sharp fall in Apple share prices after it warned of slowing sales.
The SET index moved in the range of 1,556.77 and 1,578.17 points before closing at 1,575.13, an increase of 0.7% from the previous week, in moderate turnover averaging 40.95 billion baht a day for the first three operating days of 2019.
Institutional investors were net buyers of 3.7 billion baht and retail investors bought 1.34 billion. Foreign investors were net sellers of 4.2 billion baht and brokerage firms unloaded 835.21 million worth of shares.
Newsmakers: The partial shutdown of the US government entered a 14th day yesterday with no resolution in sight. The Democrat-controlled House passed a plan to reopen the government and approved $1.5 billion for the Department of Homeland Security, but not a penny for President Donald Trump's promised border wall. The Republican-controlled Senate is certain to torpedo the bill.
Taiwan's unification with the mainland is "inevitable", President Xi Jinping said Wednesday, warning against any efforts to promote the island's independence and saying China would not renounce the option of using military force to bring it into the fold.
Singapore's economy grew more slowly than forecast in the fourth quarter, at 1.6% year-on-year, as manufacturing contracted, adding to concerns that US-China trade tensions will be a drag on growth.
Apple shares sank 10% and Wall Street stumbled as the iPhone maker shocked the market by cutting its revenue outlook for the latest quarter on Wednesday. It cited steeper-than-expected "economic deceleration" in China and emerging markets. As well, fewer people want to pay $1,000 for a phone that isn't very different from last year's model.
Investment sentiment in Thailand's capital market may turn negative if the general election is delayed until the end of the second quarter or the second half, says the Investment Analysts Association.
The SET index in 2019 could surpass the all-time high of 1,837.49 reached on Jan 29 last year, buoyed by lower external risks and a slower pace of US interest-rate increases, says SCB Securities. To do so, it will have to rise by 262 points or 17% from current levels.
Siam Commercial Bank (SCB) and Kasikornbank (KBANK) have raised their fixed-deposit rates by 25 basis points, following in the footsteps of Government Savings Bank, which partly passed through the central bank's higher rate in December.
The Bank of Thailand probably won't lift interest rates again for a while, as "accommodative" monetary policy is still needed to shore up private consumption and investment, according to edited minutes of the last Monetary Policy Committee meeting.
Headline inflation in Thailand rose to a four-year high of 1.07% in 2018, boosted by energy and house rents, but was still within the target range set by the government.
The Commerce Ministry pledges to shore up key farm product prices this year if their prices fall below targets set by the ministry.
Residential developers should be more cautious with new launches in Greater Bangkok in 2019 as the absorption rate declines, leading the number of unsold units to exceed the five-year average, says the Real Estate Information Center.
The office space market will remain robust over the next two years, with rents breaking historical records and demand expected to rise after the 2019 election, according to Knight Frank Thailand.
Electricity Generating Plc (EGCO), the country's first independent power producer, plans to sell its coal mine in Indonesia in line with its policy to seek higher-value assets in the future.
The petrochemical maker IRPC Plc says Noppadol Pinsupa will assume the presidency on Feb 1, succeeding Sukrit Surabotsopon. Mr Sukrit will move to Mr Noppadol's position, senior executive vice-president for the gas business unit of PTT Plc, IRPC's parent.
The state telecom enterprise TOT aims to record 40 billion baht in revenue this year, a 14% increase from the year before, thanks to partnership deals with major mobile operators and a different business plan.
Coming up: US and Chinese officials will hold bilateral trade talks on Monday, with markets hoping for signs of a breakthrough. The US will release the ISM purchasing managers' index for non-manufacturing sectors the same day.
Japan will release December consumer confidence and the EU will update December business confidence on Tuesday. Elsewhere, Australia, Canada and the US will announce updated trade figures, followed by Germany on Wednesday.
The European Central Bank will hold a policy meeting on Thursday, while China will announce December inflation the same day. On Friday, Britain will announce November trade figures and the US will release December inflation data.
Stocks to watch: DBS Vickers Securities Thailand recommends buying fundamental stocks expected to report good first-quarter earnings. Its picks are AOT, BBL, CPALL, HANA, PTT and WHA.
Tisco Securities recommends investing in growth stocks offering high dividends as domestic political uncertainty could pull down market sentiment. Suggested stocks are BTS and PTG, and the firm recommends holding BTS and CK.
Technical view: DBS Vickers Securities Thailand sees support at 1,530 points and resistance at 1,580. SCB Securities sees support at 1,530 and resistance at 1,580.