Healthcare workforce crisis looming

Healthcare workforce crisis looming

Thailand and other rapidly ageing countries need to explore new ways to improve healthcare and increase productivity, says KPMG

Healthcare workforce is a growing concern. (Bangkok Post file photos)
Healthcare workforce is a growing concern. (Bangkok Post file photos)

Healthcare is one of the largest sectors and employers in the world, worth over US$9 trillion globally and consuming an average of 10% of a country's GDP. However, with longer life expectancy and global population growth, having enough healthcare facilities and workforce is a growing concern -- especially in countries that are rapidly ageing, according to the global professional services consultancy KPMG.

A shortfall of 18 million health workers by 2030 will have a devastating impact on the world's healthcare sector, warns Dr Mark Britnell, KPMG's global chairman for healthcare.

There are not enough staff to care for patients, and if swift action is not taken, there will soon be a workforce crisis with severe implications on a global scale, he said.

The increase in the elderly population and decrease in the number of children means that countries are faced with more challenges to care for and support not only the entire population, but significantly, the elderly.

Thailand has been greying rapidly, with the UN projecting that the share of people aged 65 or older will increase from 10.5% of the population in 2015 to 19.5% in 2030 and 25.9% 2040.

Generally, a society is considered "aged" when when its over-65 population exceeds 14% of the total and "super-aged" when the ratio reaches 21%.

Meanwhile, children under age 15 account for only 18% of the total population, with a significant 2% drop each year.

This demographic shift appears in several countries, particularly in developed countries. However, Thailand will be the first middle-income developing country to become an aged society, as other countries in this ageing process will have already escaped the middle-income stage.

This translates into challenges for employability, lower economic growth, and care and support of seniors.

"Overcoming the health worker deficit and looming staffing crisis presents the single biggest challenge for healthcare during the next decade," Dr Britnell said.

"The short-term fix of simply addressing headcount is too simple and short-sighted -- seismic changes are needed across healthcare to avert this impending disaster.

"If we go about this the right way, I believe we can grow the capacity to care by as much as 20% to meet the anticipated staff shortfall."

Thailand is already making efforts to improve healthcare for senior citizens.

The second National Plan on the Elderly (2002-21) forms a key strategic basis to establish security and good living standards for seniors. This includes having access to a healthy and friendly environment, having appropriate welfare and services, and leading a valuable life and having access to data, information and news.

Further actions that Thailand and other countries need to explore include using digital and technological innovations to enhance healthcare and increase productivity, as well as finding new models of care outside of the traditional doctor-patient model, he said.

"By reframing the productivity debate, reimagining clinical services, changing national investment strategies, empowering patients and harnessing the power of technology and AI, we can avoid the inevitably bleak future we face if we carry on as we are," Dr Britnell said.


For more information and analysis, see the KPMG Healthcare Review at https://bit.ly/2OEIUXv

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