Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) forecasts prices of electric vehicles (EVs) such as cars, motorcycles and commercial vehicles remain unaffordable for individual buyers in Southeast Asia, including Thailand.
Countries in this region are emerging markets, and each should start with adoption of electric two-wheelers, three-wheelers and public transport vehicles, said Justin Wu, head of Asia-Pacific for BNEF.
"EV prices in Southeast Asia are more expensive than in other developed markets like the US, Europe, Australia and China," Mr Wu said. "China has yet to develop fully, but prices for battery EVs there are very cheap for motorists."
He said countries in Southeast Asia have sales of roughly 12 million two-wheelers annually, led by Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines and Malaysia.
For Thailand, BNEF expects two-wheelers to lead the EV market going forward, as electric motorbikes have the most registrations for EVs at the Land Transport Department. As of 2017, the accumulated registrations of all EVs at the department stood at 1,800 units, mainly electric motorbikes, according to figures compiled by BNEF.
"As a result, two trends will develop in Southeast Asia. The first is new operators of EV taxi fleets such as cars and motorcycles, and the second is electric buses for public transport," said Mr Wu.
He said EVs are worth the price tag in Asean if a vehicle is driven 100 kilometres daily and is used for 10 years.
"But individual buyers often cannot drive EVs such a long distance, so it does not make sense for them to buy such vehicles," said Mr Wu.
"Once each Asean country can adopt EVs for public transport and spread charging stations across the country, the cost of EVs will drop with the start of local manufacturing."
He said the government's EV support policy did not factor in Thailand's EV forecast.
For the global EV outlook, BNEF projects EVs are on track to take up 57% of the global passenger car sales by 2040, while electric buses are on target to hold 81% of municipal bus sales by the same year.
BNEF said EVs should comprise 56% of light commercial vehicle sales in Europe, the US and China within the next two decades, plus 31% of the medium commercial market.
Heavy trucks will prove the hardest segment to make electric, with sales limited to 19% in 2040. They will mostly be used for shorter distance applications. However, conventional heavy trucks on long-haul routes will also face competition from alternatives using natural gas and hydrogen fuel cells, said Mr Wu.
Shared mobility services such as ride-hailing and car-sharing are set to rise to 19% by 2040, up from less than 5% now.