The Transport Ministry says it has not yet decided whether to reduce the speed of the trains on the planned Thai-Japanese rail line to Chiang Mai cut costs.
Chaiwat Thongkamkoon, director-general of the Office of Transport and Traffic Policy and Planning, made the comment on Saturday in response to Japanese media reports that Tokyo was “surprised” by the potential downgrade.
Mr Chaiwat said the decision would likely be made after a meeting between the two sides on Feb 6.
The two countries signed a memorandum of cooperation in May 2015 for the Bangkok-Chiang Mai high-speed train project. The feasibility study on the first phase from Bangkok to Phitsanulok was completed late last year.
“We’re currently discussing with our Japanese counterparts how to implement it in the most suitable and cost-effective manner on Feb 6,” Mr Chaiwat said.
The first-phase study by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (Jica) recommended that the 380-kilometre Bangkok-Phitsanulok rail line use shinkansen technology, with a top speed of 300 kilometres per hour and a 1.435m gauge track. It covers seven stations -- Bang Sue, Don Mueang, Ayutthaya, Lop Buri, Nakhon Sawan, Phichit and Phitsanulok -- and the trip would take 1 hour and 58 minutes.
The study forecast 29,000 passengers per day in 2025 when the line opens, assuming the areas along the track are not developed, before rising to 50,000 per day in 2055.
If the land along the line is developed, ridership should be 29,000 passengers per day in 2025 and 73,200 in 2055.
The first phase is expected to cost 276.2 billion baht with an economic return of 14.7% including gains from land development, or 7.2% excluding them.
The Japanese proposed that Thailand prepare national and regional development plans along the route to optimise the economic and investment returns. It should also prepare an integrated blueprint for optimal connectivity.
“Since high-speed projects require large investments, the ministry has to weight the cost-effectiveness of the project and whether it will be better to downgrade it to medium-speed,” Mr Chaiwat said.
Nikkei Asian Review reported on Thursday that the Thai government had planned to cut the speed to a range between 180 and 200kph after Japan estimated the cost at 420 billion baht for the entire project.
“Reducing the train's speed could sap Japan's enthusiasm since the rail no longer would be a cutting-edge project," the newspaper report said.
“A slower train likely would reduce some expenses, such as for building sound barriers, but laying 670km of new rails would cost nearly the same for either a high-speed or medium-speed line. Slower trains also would probably hurt profitability, as some potential customers may choose to fly."
Based on Japan's experience, the likelihood of a shinkansen train losing customers to planes rises once travel exceeds three hours, it added. “Even at 300kph, the trip from Bangkok to the northern city of Chiang Mai would take nearly three and a half hours. Potential riders may choose low-cost flights if travel time on the train is lengthened.”
This risk, coupled with the low fare of 1,200 baht proposed by Thailand, less than one-third the price to travel an equivalent distance by shinkansen in Japan, could ultimately make the project unviable and put an end to it.
The report also speculated that the move might be Bangkok's attempt to have Tokyo invest in the project to ensure Japan's long-term commitment and reduce various risks stemming from Thailand's lack of experience in operating high-speed trains.