Gold rallies as trade-war risks, Bolton's ascent fire up demand

Gold rallies as trade-war risks, Bolton's ascent fire up demand

Former US ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton speaks at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Oxon Hill, Maryland, on Feb 24, 2017. (Reuters photo)
Former US ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton speaks at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Oxon Hill, Maryland, on Feb 24, 2017. (Reuters photo)

Gold’s sizzling. Investors pushed prices of the haven higher as the United States and China exchanged blows on trade, and US President Donald Trump installed the hawkish John Bolton as his new national security adviser, ratcheting up geopolitical tensions and fueling gains in crude oil.

“Having a ‘neo-con’ back in the White House took the geopolitical risk monitor to another level,” said Stephen Innes, head of trading for Asia Pacific at Oanda Corp, referring to Bolton and the neo-conservative tag. “Trump is taking a no-holds-barred approach to diplomacy as well. So yes, this appointment, in my view, was the most significant factor in this morning’s gold ramp.”

Investor interest in bullion is regaining momentum as the long-expected trade fight stokes concern global growth will slow, and Bolton’s ascent adds to risks of a more muscular US approach to some of the world’s hotspots, especially Iran and North Korea.

Friday’s interest in bullion follows midweek gains as the Federal Reserve stuck with plans to raise rates three times this year, defusing concern that more hikes may be in the offing.

“It’s been a good week for precious metal bulls, with multiple factors supporting the yellow metal,” said Jordan Eliseo, chief economist at Australian Bullion Co. “As it often does, gold rallied after the Fed pushed through with their anticipated rate hike, whilst the troubling rhetoric around tariffs, and the sharp sell off in risk assets, is also providing some safe-haven demand.”

Bullion for immediate delivery jumped as much as 1.1% to US$1,343.27 an ounce, the highest since Feb 20, and was at $1,340.71 at 8.37am in London (2.37pm Bangkok time). Gold’s up 2% this week, heading for the biggest gain since the period to Feb 16. It surged 1.6% on Wednesday after the Fed signalled the pace of tightening won’t accelerate this year.

There are other strong signs that bullion is winning favor with investors again. Global holdings in exchange-traded funds have expanded to the highest level since 2013, while traders and analysts in a Bloomberg survey are the most bullish on the metal’s outlook in almost two months.

Bolton -- a former US ambassador to the United Nations who’s famed for his hawkish views, blunt comments, and role as a strong supporter of the US invasion of Iraq -- will replace H.R. McMaster in the national security adviser’s position. On energy markets, Brent crude hit $70 a barrel.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.7% this week, while equity markets in the US and Asia tumbled after tariffs were announced. While there’d been concern among some investors the Fed may favour four hikes in 2018, the bank’s guidance signalled policy makers are still sticking at three.


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