Kbank forecasts baht rise

Kbank forecasts baht rise

Influx of foreign funds buoys local currency

US dollars are likely to buy fewer baht by year's end, says KBank.
US dollars are likely to buy fewer baht by year's end, says KBank.

How can we say the baht is rising against the US dollar, as forecast by Kasikornbank (KBank), when it goes from 34.50 to 33.50? If you transfer money from the US to Thailand, like I do, it makes good sense.

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Exchange rates can seem a bit confusing at first. For example, how can we say  the baht is rising against the US dollar when it goes from 34.50 to 33.50?

For someone like me, who often transfers money from my US bank account to my Thai bank account, it makes good sense. Suppose at the moment I can buy 34.50 baht with one US dollar, but in the future I may only be able to buy 33.50 baht. Clearly, for me, the baht is becoming more expensive.

The opposite is true for you if you are planning a trip to the US, for example. You will be able to buy more US dollars for your baht.

The exchange rate is affected by many factors and you will see several in the story below. The value of the baht can be a big issue for those exporting goods to the United States and other countries. Unless, they cut the price, their customers could end up paying more and perhaps even reducing their orders or buying from another supplier.

KBank raises baht forecast

SOMRUEDI BANCHONGDUANG

Kasikornbank (KBank) has revised its year-end baht outlook to 33.50 against the US dollar from 34.50 earlier, citing continued offshore capital flows into Thailand.

A wider gap between Thailand's real interest rate and low inflation is the key factor attracting foreign capital, particularly in short-dated Thai bonds, said Kobsit Silpachai, head of the bank's capital market research department.

Foreign holdings of Thai bonds total 700 billion baht, up from 630 billion at the beginning of the year. The influx of offshore funds is firming the baht against the US dollar.

The baht is the top-performing currency in Asia with a 7%-plus gain this year, prompting the Bank of Thailand on Monday to require commercial banks to report additional information in the event of unusually high volume of transfers between non-resident baht accounts, which could involve baht speculation.

"The central bank's move led to the baht weakening marginally by seven satang on Monday," Mr Kobsit said. "The central bank should be more aggressive on foreign exchange management, otherwise the baht will reach 33.20-33.50."

But adjusting policy rates and managing foreign exchange will be insufficient to lower the baht, he said, adding that fiscal policy is needed to raise domestic consumption and fuel inflation to ease the baht's gain.

You can read the full story here: http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/finance/1311343/kbank-raises-baht-forecast

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Vocabulary

  • adjust: to change something slightly, especially to make it more correct, effective, or suitable - ปรับ
  • affected (verb): having received an effect or influence - ถูกผลกระทบ, มีผลต่อ
  • aggressive: determined; wanting to do something very much and not letting anyone or any difficulties stop you - ตั้งใจจริง, ซึ่งมุ่งมั่น
  • attract: to cause someone to be interested in something - ดึงดูดความสนใจ
  • bond (noun): a way that companies and the government borrow money from many people each of which owns one or more "bonds" which are usually traded on securities exchanges - พันธบัตร
  • capital: a large amount of money that is invested or is used - ทุน, เงินทุน
  • capital flows (noun): investment money coming into the country -
  • capital market: financial markets such as stock exchanges where companies and governments sell stock shares, bonds, etc to get or "raise" the money they need -
  • citing: mentioning as a reason - ให้ อ้างอิงเหตุผล
  • commercial bank (noun): a bank with branches in many different places, that provides a range of services, especially related to bank accounts, loans and saving money, for people and businesses; the kind of bank that most people use - ธนาคารพาณิชย์, สถาบันการเงินที่มุ่งเน้นการรับฝากเงิน
  • confusing: difficult to understand; not clear - น่าสับสน
  • consumption: the act of using energy, food or materials; the amount used - การบริโภคพลังงาน, การใช้หมดไป
  • currency (noun): the system of money, usually, but not always, that a country uses - เงินตรา
  • customers (noun): people or an organisations that buy something from a shop/store or business - ลูกค้า
  • domestic: inside the country being talked about - ภายในประเทศ
  • ease: to make a problem, situation or pain less severe or serious - บรรเทา
  • exchange rate: when you change one currency or money into another currency, how much you get - อัตราการแลกเปลี่ยนเงินตราระหว่างประเทศ
  • export: to sell and/or send goods to another country - ส่งออก
  • factors (noun): facts or situations which influence the result of something - ปัจจัย
  • firm (verb): to make something become stronger or harder - ทำให้แข็งแรง, ทำให้แข็ง
  • fiscal (adj.): connected with a budget; connected with the government budget, i.e., public money - เกี่ยวกับงบประมาณ
  • forecast: a statement about what will happen in the future based on information available now - การพยากรณ์, การคาดการณ์
  • fuel: to cause something, usually bad, to happen; to increase something; to make something stronger - ก่อให้เกิด, ทำให้รุนแรงขึ้น
  • funds: money needed or available to spend on something - เงินทุน
  • gain (noun): an increase in the amount of something - จำนวนที่เพิ่มขึ้น
  • gap: a space or opening in the middle of something or between things - ช่องว่าง
  • in the event of: if this happens -
  • inflation: a general rise in the prices of services and goods in a particular country, resulting in a fall in the value of money - เงินเฟ้อ
  • influx: a large number of people or things coming in to a place - การหลั่งไหล การไหลบ่า  (เข้าไปยังที่ใดที่หนึ่ง)
  • insufficient: not enough - ไม่เพียงพอ
  • issue: a problem that needs to be considered - ประเด็น
  • marginally: by a small amount - เล็กและไม่สำคัญ, เล็กน้อย
  • offshore (adj): kept or located in another country - นอกประเทศ
  • opposite: a person or thing that is as different as possible from somebody/something else - ตรงกันข้าม
  • otherwise: if not; used for saying that if one thing does not happen or is not true, something else will happen, usually something bad - มิฉะนั้น, ไม่เช่นนั้น
  • outlook: an idea about what a situation will be like in the future - อนาคตที่คาดหวังไว้, ทัศนคติ
  • particularly: especially, or more than usual - โดยเฉพาะ
  • policy (noun): a set of plans or action agreed on by a government, political party, business, or other group - นโยบาย
  • prompting: causing - ก่อให้เกิด
  • rate: the level or speed at which something happens or changes, or the amount or number of times it happens or changes in a particular period - อัตรา
  • real interest rate (noun): the rate of interest an investor, saver or lender receives (or expects to receive) after allowing for inflation - อัตราดอกเบี้ยหลังจากหักอัตราเงินเฟ้อ
  • reduce: to make something smaller or less in amount, size, importance etc - ลดลง
  • research: a careful study of a subject, especially in order to discover new facts or information about it - การวิจัย
  • resident: a person who lives in a particular area - ผู้พักอาศัย, ผู้อยู่อาศัยในบริเวณ  ประชาชนที่อาศัยในท้องที่
  • revise: to change, improve, or make additions to something - แก้ไข
  • sense (noun): the meaning that a word or phrase has; an understanding about something - ความหมาย
  • speculation (noun): buying something so that when the price of the thing goes up you will make money - กักตุน, การเก็งกำ, การเก็งกำไรสินค้าของพ่อค้าทำให้เขาถูกต่อว่ามากมาย, การหมุนเงิน
  • supplier: a person or company that supplies goods - ผู้จัดหาสิ่งของให้, ผู้ผลิตสินค้าและวัตถุดิบ
  • transfer (noun): the act of moving money from one bank or place to another; the money moved in this way - การโอน
  • transfer (verb): to move money from one bank or place to another - โอน
  • volume (noun): an amount of something - ปริมาณ
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