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China slowdown effect on Thailand until 2017

A shipping container is lifted from a truck to load onto a ship at a port in Bangkok March 25. The Asian Development Bank sees Thailand posting inflation of 0.6%, exports contracting by 1% and a current account surplus of 7.5% of gross domestic product in 2016. (Reuters photo)

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Slow growth in China reduces Thailand & Asia's growth, but govt's 20 planned infrastructure projects could boost Thai economy.

ECONOMY & INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS

ADB sees China slowdown hitting Thailand through 2017

Asia growth seen at 5.7% this year
30/03/2016
Bangkok Post and AP

MANILA -- Softer growth prospects for China and a weak recovery in major industrial economies are expected to suppress economic growth in developing Asia and cut Thailand’s growth by half a percentage point, according to an Asian Development Bank (ADB) report released Wednesday.

The Asian Development Outlook 2016 said the region will see growth fall to to 5.7% in 2016 and 2017, with below previous projections, with China's growth moderating to 6.5% this year from 6.9% last year and to 6.3% next year. The region's whole economy grew 5.9% in 2015.

Slower exports, a falling labour supply and supply-side reforms are reshaping the world's second-largest economy, China,  toward more domestic consumption and a further reduction in excess industrial capacity, it said.

THAILAND OUTLOOK

The ADB report says economic recovery in Thailand will gradually move forward over the next two years, bolstered by public investment.

Senior ADB economist for Thailand Luxamon Attapich said the economic growth projection for the country in 2016 was at 3% instead of 3.5% as earlier projected. It is based on the assumption that inflation will stay at 0.6%, the exports contract by 1% and current account surplus will come in at 7.5% of gross domestic product (GDP).

The bank estimated the economy would grow by 3.5% in 2017 with inflation at 2% and current account surplus at 4%.

GOVT INVESTMENT MAIN GROWTH DRIVER

She said the main driver for economic growth this year would be government investment, which is projected to grow by 10%. The bank believes that if the government opens bidding on 20 planned infrastructure projects, it would boost the economy.

Meanwhile, the measures to increase consumer spending during Songkran via tax incentives will help to stimulate the economy next month, but not raise overall growth for 2016.

Ms Laxamon said Thailand still needs to watch for risks from the severe drought, falling farm prices and high household debt levels of 81% of GDP as they could impact consumer spending.

REGIONAL GROWTH


The report says India will remain one of the fastest-growing major economies, expanding by 7.4% in 2016 and 7.8% in 2017. Last year, India's economy grew 7.6%, with strong public investment boosting growth.

Southeast Asia's economy as a whole is set for stronger growth at 4.5% this year and 4.8% next year, up from 4.4% in 2015. The region will be led by its biggest economy, Indonesia, as it ramps up investment in infrastructure and implements policy reforms to spur private investment.

"(China's) growth moderation and uneven global recovery are weighing down overall growth in Asia," said Shang-Jin Wei, ADB's chief economist. "Despite these pressures, the Asia region will continue to contribute over 60% of total global growth."

He urged countries across Asia to implement reforms to boost productivity, invest in under-supplied infrastructure, and follow sound macroeconomic management to increase growth potential and insulate them from global instability.

Aggregate growth in the United States, the euro area and Japan will stay at 1.8% in 2016 and inch up to 1.9% in 2017, the report said.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/915637/adb-see-china-slowdown-hitting-thailand-through-2017

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Vocabulary:

according to (prep): as stated or reported by somebody/something - ตามคำบอกเล่า, ตามรายงาน

aggregate : a total number or amount made up of smaller amounts that are collected together - ผลรวม, ผลรวบยอด

assumption : something that you consider likely to be true even though you have no proof - ข้อสันนิษฐาน

bidding (noun): offering to buy/sell something at a specific price - การยื่นเสนอราคา, การประมูล

bolster : to make something stronger or more effective - ทำให้เข้มแข็ง

boost : to increase - เพิ่ม

capacity : the amount of something that can be produced - ความสามารถในการ (ผลิต)

come in at : will be reported at this level in the future -

consumer : someone who buys and uses goods and services - ผู้บริโภค

consumption : the act of using energy, food or materials; the amount used - การบริโภคพลังงาน, การใช้หมดไป

contract : to get smaller - หดตัว

contribute : to be a part of a group or an activity and help it to be successful - สนับสนุน

current account (noun): the difference between exports and imports coming into the country, also includes investment income with export income - บัญชีเดินสะพัด; บัญชีการชำระเงินระหว่างประเทศ ประกอบด้วย 2 ส่วน ส่วนแรก คือ ส่วนที่เป็นสินค้าได้แก่ สินค้าออก และสินค้าเข้า ส่วนที่สองคือส่วนที่เป็นการบริการ อันได้แก่ รายการต่างๆ ทางด้านการค้าบริการ เช่น การท่องเที่ยว การธนาคาร การประกันภัย การขนส่ง เป็นต้น บัญชีเดินสะพัดเป็นส่วนสำคัญของบัญชีดุลการชำระเงิน

develop (verb): to gradually grow and improve something so that it becomes more advanced, stronger and successful - พัฒนา

domestic : inside the country being talked about - ภายในประเทศ

driver (noun): something that causes other things to happen (example: a driver of economic growth) -

economy : the relationship between production, trade and the supply of money in a particular country or region - เศรษฐกิจ

estimated : thought to be a particular amount, size, etc. based on a guess or the best information available - ประมาณการ

excess : greater than is usual; too much of something   - มากเกินปริมาณที่พอดี

expect (verb): to think or believe that something will happen or that somebody will do something - คาด, คาดว่า, คาดการณ์

export (noun): something sold and transported to another country - สินค้าออก

further : more; additional - มากไปกว่านี้

GDP : gross domestic product, the total value of all goods and services produced in a country in a year, except for income received from money invested in other countries ผลิตภัณฑ์มวลรวมภายในประเทศ -

global : world - เกี่ยวกับโลก

gross domestic product : the total value of all goods and services produced in a country in a year, except for income received from money invested in other countries. It is often simply called GDP - ผลิตภัณฑ์มวลรวมภายในประเทศ

growth (noun): economic growth, an increase in economic activity - การเติบโต

implement : to make something such as an idea, plan, system or law start to work and be used - นำแผนหรือนโยบายมาปฏิบัติ, นำมาใช้

incentive : something that makes you want to do something or work harder, because you know that you will benefit by doing this - สิ่งกระตุ้น

inch up : increase by small amount -

industrial : relating to industry - เกี่ยวกับอุตสาหกรรม

inflation : a general rise in the prices of services and goods in a particular country, resulting in a fall in the value of money - เงินเฟ้อ

infrastructure : a set of systems within a place or organisation that affect how well it operates, e.g., the telephone and transport systems in a country or the system of train tracks that a railway uses - สาธารณูปโภค

instability : a situation that keeps changing, so that you are worried about what might happen - ความไม่มั่นคง

insulate : protect; the act of protecting somebody/something; the state of being protected - การอารักขา, การปกป้อง

investment (noun): the act of investing money in something - การลงทุน

labour : work, especially hard physical work - งานที่ใช้พละกำลัง

macroeconomic (adj.): for the economy of a whole country -

major : very large or important - สำคัญมาก

measure : an action taken to solve a particular problem - มาตรการ

moderate : neither very great nor very small in strength, size, amount or degree - ระดับปานกลาง

moderation (noun): not doing something too much; temperance, mildness - การทำให้น้อยลง, การทำให้ลดลง

overall (adj): total; including all the things or people that are involved in a particular situation; general - ทั้งหมด, โดยทั่วไป

percentage (noun): an amount divided by 100 - อัตราร้อยละ, จำนวนร้อยละ, อัตราต่อหนึ่งร้อย

policy (noun): a set of plans or action agreed on by a government, political party, business, or other group - นโยบาย

pressure : (of a force) to press against something - กดดัน, อัด, บีบ

previous : happening or existing before the event or object that you are talking about - แต่ก่อน, เมื่อก่อน

private : involving groups, businesses or industries that are not owned or controlled by the government - เอกชน

productivity (noun): the rate/speed at which goods are produced, especially compared to the time, money, and workers needed to produce them, e.g., how much of something is produced in an hour by a worker or compared to the amount of money invested - ผลิตภาพ; การเพิ่มผลผลิต; ความสามารถในการผลิต

project : a planned piece of work that is designed to find information about something, to produce something new, or to improve something - โครงการ

project : to calculate based on information already known - คาดคะเน, ประเมิน

projection : a calculation or guess about the future based on information that you have - การคาดคะเน

prospect (noun): the possibility that something will happen - ความคาดหวัง, โอกาส, ความหวังข้างหน้า อนาคต

public (adj): belonging to the government -

ramps up : to make something increase in amount or strength; to make larger; to scale up; to escalate - ยกระดับ; เสริม

recovery : the process of becoming normal and healthy again - ฟื้นฟูสภาพ

recovery (noun): the process of becoming normal and healthy again - การฟื้นตัว, การฟื้นฟู

reduction : the process or result of making something smaller or less in amount, size, importance etc - การลดลง

reform : a change that is intended to correct a situation that is wrong or unfair - การแก้ไข การปฏิรูป

region : a large area of land or space, usually without exact limits or borders - ภูมิภาค, ขอบเขต, แถบ, บริเวณ

remain (verb): to stay in the same place; to not leave - ยังอยู่, พักอยู่, รออยู่

reshape (verb): to change the shape or structure of something - เปลี่ยนรูปใหม่, แปลงโฉมใหม่

senior : with a high rank or position - อาวุโส

soft : not strict enough; weak - ไร้น้ำหนัก อ่อนด้วยเหตุผล

sound : sensible; that you can rely on and that will probably give good results - ไม่มีข้อบกพร่อง, ที่ไม่เสียหาย

spur : to cause something to happen - ก่อให้เกิด 

stimulate : to make something develop or become more active; to encourage something - กระตุ้น, ส่งเสริม

supply (noun): an amount or quantity of something that is available to buy or use - อุปทาน

suppress : to prevent something from growing, developing or continuing - อดกลั้น, ยับยั้ง, ระงับ

surplus (noun): the amount by which the amount of money received is greater than the amount of money spent; more than is needed - จำนวนที่เกิน, ส่วนที่เกิน, เหลือเกิน

tax incentives : tax reductions for people and companies that do what the government wants them to do -

uneven : not following a regular pattern; not having the same quality in all parts; - ซึ่งไม่เท่ากัน, ซึ่งไม่สม่ำเสมอ

urge : to advise someone very strongly about what action or attitude they should take - ผลักดัน, กระตุ้น

weighing down : when some difficult and heavy thing makes action or movement very difficult -

whole (adjective): all of something - ทั้งหมด

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