The most important of all unimportant things, the Oscars arrive on Monday morning, Thailand time. In a year that seems more muted than usual, Hollywood's biggest jamboree has striven to stay relevant with the inclusion of blockbuster titles such as Black Panther and Bohemian Rhapsody, besides the more edgy and less popular films that have claimed much of the headlines, such as Roma and Green Book. While there are many cinematic awards around the world, the Oscars still seem to matter the most, and the ritual of predicting the winners is at once a frivolous parlour game and an annual survey of the vital signs of mainstream cinema. Don't bet on it, but we offer our takes here.
Best Picture
Nominees: Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, Green Book, Roma, A Star Is Born, Vice
The strongest among this bunch are The Favourite and Roma, in that order, while Bohemian Rhapsody doesn't deserve to be here at all (and I'm a Queen fan). Alfonso Cuaron's Roma began quietly as a critics' darling, but the stunning craftsmanship of this neorealist, poor-woman epic struggle has gathered steady momentum to become the prestige picture of the year. If the Netflix-backed Mexican film wins, it will be the first non-English speaking title to receive the honour in the 90-year history of the Academy Awards. (The Artist, a French film that won in 2011, is a silent movie). Expect a barbed speech about President Trump's planned Tex-Mex border wall and other immigrant discourses. Anyway, Yorgos Lanthimos' The Favourite would be my winner: a black comedy dripping with poison and dark with gender dynamics that is so sharp, so accomplished and so cinematically inventive. It also understands one important thing about the court of Queen Anne in the 1700s: palace life is an absurd theatre at its most monstrously extravagant, bringing nothing but tragedy to its inhabitants. But it will be too weird for Hollywood and the classical elegance of Roma will prevail.
Olivia Colman in The Favourite.
Alfonso Cuaron, left, and Yalitza Aparicio on the set of Roma. Photos: AP
Will win: Roma
Should win: The Favourite
Best Director
Nominees: Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman), Alfonso Cuaron (Roma), Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite), Adam McKay (Vice), Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War).
If Alfonso Cuaron wins (and I think he will), it will be the fifth time in six years that a Mexican director has triumphed in this category, and the eighth time since 2010 that a non-American has picked up the gong (the only American to win in that time was Damien Chazelle for La La Land two years ago). That said, only two Americans are in this year's race, Spike Lee and Adam McKay, and they look like long shots despite the history-making possibility of Lee becoming the first black director to snap up the statuette (when Moonlight won Best Picture, Barry Jenkins didn't; when 12 Years A Slave won best picture, Steve McQueen didn't). Meanwhile, Pawel Pawlikowski's inclusion is a deserved surprise; his Polish drama Cold War is an outstanding film. London-based Greek director Yorgos Lanthimos, again my pick, is one of the most exciting filmmakers working today, and The Favourite is proof that he has mastered the game of international filmmaking (attracting stars like Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz), while staying true to his roots in bizarre human tragicomedy, resulting in a film unlike any other period drama you've ever seen.
Will win: Alfonso Cuaron
Should win: Yorgos Lanthimos
Best Actor
Nominees: Christian Bale (Vice), Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born), Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate), Viggo Mortensen (Green Book), Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
A few months ago, before the nominations were announced, Bradley Cooper was way ahead of the rest. But somehow, A Star Is Born has lost steam, and the director/actor is now being completely overshadowed by late surgers, especially Rami Malek, channelling Freddie Mercury with flamboyant gusto. My heart goes to Viggo Mortensen, playing a rough-edged bouncer on a road trip with a black pianist, and to Willem Dafoe, playing Vincent van Gogh -- they're two solid actors with deep understanding of their characters and who didn't set out to perfect their technique or to mimic anyone. But what's the point when Rami Malek is now a shoo-in. His turn in Bohemian Rhapsody is the biggest appeal in this otherwise routine, checklist-ticking biopic that runs on autopilot. This is perhaps one category that leaves no room for a dark horse at all.
Rami Malek, centre, in Bohemian Rhapsody.
Will win: Rami Malek
Should win: Viggo Mortensen, Willem Dafoe
Best Actress
Nominees: Yalitza Aparicio (Roma), Glenn Close (The Wife), Olivia Colman (The Favourite), Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?), Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)
Romantics are hoping for a big upset that sees Yalitza Aparicio, a Mixtec actress playing a maid in Roma, pulling the rug from under the feet of glitzy Hollywood heavyweights (especially Lady Gaga). It won't happen, and the fact that she's even squeezed into the last five is already a pleasant surprise in this year's line-up. Olivia Colman as Queen Anne in The Favourite is something to marvel at: a sad, mad, ill-fated lesbian monarch trapped in her own gilded cage, the poor rich woman in a perpetual descent into helplessness and insanity. Like the film, Colman's performance will be too weird for the voters. So this Oscar belongs to Glenn Close, a superb, commanding actress in a so-so movie. The voters will take this opportunity to honour a respected actress who's been nominated seven times and won zero. The Oscars aren't a lifetime achievement accolade, but sometimes (like this time) it's the if-not-now-then-when factor that decides.
Glenn Close in The Wife.
Will win: Glenn Close
Should win: Olivia Colman
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Mahershala Ali (Green Book), Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman), Sam Elliot (A Star Is Born), Richard E Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?), Sam Rockwell (Vice)
If you haven't seen Richard E Grant in the British cult classic Withnail And I, this is a chance to see it (or revisit it). He should win for Can You Ever Forgive Me?, but the prevailing winds are carrying Mahershala Ali of Green Book to the second Best Supporting Actor Oscar. And his turn in Moonlight is much more impressive than here.
Viggo Mortensen, left, and Mahershala Ali in Green Book.
Adam Driver, left, and John David Washington in BlacKkKlansman.
Will win: Mahershala Ali
Should win: Richard E Grant
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Amy Adams (Vice), Rachel Weisz (The Favourite), Emma Stone (The Favourite), Marina de Tavira (Roma), Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
This is the closest race, and could go any of five ways (although Marina de Tavira probably has less of a chance than the rest). Regina King is outstanding in If Beale Street Could Talk, and her Golden Globe win has given her a prophetic boost. (That said, If Beale Street Could Talk should have been up there in the Best Picture race.) The two nominees from The Favourite, Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone, playing rival confidantes to Olivia Colman's ever-vulnerable Queen Anne, confirms that this is the women's movie of the year. Meanwhile, it is Amy Adams' sixth nomination (she plays Dick Cheney's wife in Vice) and, although I don't think she'll win, I will quietly, fan-boyishly root for her.
Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk.
Will win: Regina King
Should win: Amy Adams
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees: The Favourite, Green Book, First Reformed, Vice, Roma
My favourites are First Reformed (it was not released in Thai cinemas but legit DVDs can be found), The Favourite (a confirmation that whatever begins as comedy ends in tragedy) and Roma (the personal in the foreground, the political in the background, in uneasy harmony). Green Book is a popular film, but I think it's a little too predictable, while Vice is too full of itself.
Will win: Green Book (Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly)
Should win: First Reformed (Paul Schrader)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: BlacKkKlansman, If Beale Street Could Talk, A Star Is Born, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
This one will be a two-way contest between Spike Lee's BlacKkKlansman (adapted from Ron Stallworth's memoir about his stint as a black undercover agent infiltrating a white nationalist movement) and Barry Jenkins's If Beale Street Could Talk (adapted from James Baldwin's novel set in 1970s Harlem). Lee goes for absurd humour that exposes racist stupidity, while Jenkins uses silky romance to talk about racial injustice. I prefer the latter, though the former is likely to win.
Will win: BlacKkKlansman (Spike Lee, Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Wilmott, Spike Lee)
Should win: If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins)
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees: Capernaum (Lebanon), Roma (Mexico), Cold War (Poland), Never Look Away (Germany), Shoplifters (Japan)
In December, Roma was a lock, but go back to the top of this article; that film is now expected to win Best Picture. Can the same film also win Best Foreign Language? It would be unprecedented. It would also be preposterous. Cold War, with its austere formalism and heartbreaking sorrow, deserves recognition; likewise Shoplifters, a Japanese Dickensian story of devastating sentiments. I really don't know how this one will go, but my blind gut tells me that Roma will win both.
Will win: Roma
Should win: Cold War
