China's growing influence in Asia and beyond is real. Beijing's escalating confrontation with the United States and threats of a trade war between the two superpowers are also pressing, with experts saying that would put the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) in the most difficult position in its 50-year history.
The latest skirmish began with Washington imposing tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminium, and following with threats to tax tens of billions of dollars in manufactured and high-tech goods, accusing China of unfair trade. Beijing has retaliated with tariffs on politically sensitive US farm products including soybeans. The two sides have held talks in an attempt to resolve their differences but many hurdles remain.
The result has been anxiety across the world, with Asean in particular poised to suffer collateral damage.
"Asean is about to go through a very dangerous moment in its history … probably the most dangerous ever as US-China relations are in the most dangerous phase," said Kishore Mahbubani, a former permanent secretary at the Foreign Ministry in Singapore and founding dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.
Dr Mahbubani, who spent several months in the US after stepping down from his position at the Singapore university last December, also said that Chinese experts he met in the States conceded that the US-China relationship was going to "get worse".
"It's very clear that the Chinese are also already aware that something has gone fundamentally wrong in US-China relations," he told the Asean Media Forum (AMF) co-hosted by the Asean Secretariat and the German development agency GIZ in Singapore earlier this month.
The current tensions did not start with US president Donald Trump, he said, but they have been exacerbated under the current administration, which has ushered in a "seismic change".
"Now the issue is beyond personality. [If there is] a change in American administration, and even if Donald Trump goes, the US-China relationship will not get better," he said.
Tommy Koh, ambassador-at-large, special adviser of the Institute of Policy Studies and chairman of the Centre for International Law at the National University of Singapore, also expressed his concern.
"I'm very worried … about the current situation between the United States and China. Why? Because the leader of the United States does not believe in all the principles and values that form the rules-based international order regarding the open economy, free trade, globalisation and economic integration. He rejects all of these."
"He is using trade as a political instrument against China. He says to the Chinese that the US can't accept a trade deficit.
"My fear is that tit for tat will lead us to a trade war between the US and China, and other trading partners as well," he said, recalling the sharp protectionist turn that America took in the 1930s, resulting in a trade war with Europe and other countries.
"It helped deepen the Great Depression that lasted a decade and had enormous effects on the world economy," said the veteran diplomat. "The current situation seems to be the very beginning of a trade war and a few countries have already suffered collateral damage, which has already happened to Singapore."
Even though the US and China are economically interdependent, that is not "a guarantee of peace", he said.
"China now has the potential, scale and a leader who has global ambitions to be a superpower. The question is how the incumbent superpower and the rising superpower live in peace with each other. The US and China are economically linked and interdependent so optimists say these countries are so intertwined. How can they fight against each other? It makes no sense.
"But the lessons from history are not encouraging. My view is that war between the US and China is possible but not inevitable."
Dr Mahbubani, however, sees no chance of military conflict. "I can guarantee that [won't happen]. Each side will use the instrument they think they gives them an advantage against each other," he said.
In the case of China, it can use its economic strength to counter the US as more than 100 countries now have China as their largest trading partner.
"But the US will use another weapon. American establishments are larger and more diverse (than those of China). That's the strength of America."
WHAT'S NEXT?
Both Dr Mahbubani and Mr Koh also see maritime disputes worsening in the foreseeable future.
"What's next? I will say the South China Sea issue is going to get more difficult," said Dr Mahbubani. "If the United States looks for one issue to use to make China look very bad, that issue is the South China Sea.
"When that happens, Asean countries will again be put in a very difficult spot."
Mr Koh said his other worry was Taiwan as the US, apart from using trade as a geopolitical tool, is also playing the "Taiwan card" in a "grand bargain".
Taiwan is a core interest of China and President Trump seems to "playing with fire" in his approach to the island republic that China adamantly claims as its territory.
"Until recently the water in the Taiwan Straits was calm. But now I'm a little worried about whether peace will prevail there," said Mr Koh. In recent months, the US has approved licences for American firms to sell defence technology to Taiwan to build submarines. Washington also passed the Taiwan Travel Act, which forms the basis of bilateral ties and visits between their officials in the absence of formal diplomatic relations.
Where does all this leave Asean? With the region at peace and its economy prospering, Asean countries have to maintain their unity and speak with one voice to cope with geopolitical challenges, said Dr Koh.
"We tend to underestimate ourselves. Our collective economy is the fifth largest in the world and will become the fourth largest very soon, but we have to be united not divided, neutral and independent," he said.
Asean, in his view, has to be judicious in its relations not only with the US and China but also Japan, India, and the European Union (EU).
"We want to be relevant and useful to all of these major powers but we should not ally with any of them," he said.
"The strength of Asean unity comes from within. The danger is when any Asean members chose to ally themselves with one major power. That affects our unity. Once we lose that, we will never be trusted to be neutral and act as a facilitator. That's the mistake.
"This is a critical moment. The competition is not only between the US and China but also between Japan and China."
Dr Mahbubani agreed that taking sides with either the US or China would not be helpful, adding that Asean itself also needs to be strengthened.
"If you want to make sure Asean survives, the ownership of Asean, governments of Asean, people of Asean, have to be strengthened," he said. "I have found even though we've got a strong foundation, the sense of ownership of Asean hasn't circulated down to the people. The best way to protect ourselves is to strengthen Asean even more."
CRISIS MANAGEMENT
Marty Natalegawa, the former foreign minister of Indonesia, emphasised the need for Asean members to "renew trust", not only among each other but also in the instruments the group had created. Otherwise, it will be known only for plans, visions and programmes that are never translated into actions.
"Five decades ago, Asean was affected by conflicts, tensions and mistrust, and yet five decades later, thanks to Asean, we have an Asean community where the notion of open conflicts among Asean is now less likely than ever before," he said.
"But we must ask ourselves whether what has been sufficient for the last five decades will be sufficient for the next five decades."
As well, he asserted, "business as usual" is not good enough.
"We now have an Asean with peace and stability, an Asean political security community, but at the same time I see almost a paradox of plenty. We have many Asean instruments and frameworks but at the same time hesitance by Asean member countries themselves to actually make use of these instruments."
Expressing his disappointment with Asean's muted response to South-North Korea issues, the former foreign minister called on Asean to develop a better and more relevant crisis management capacity to meet domestic, regional and global challenges.
"In any given year, things happen in the world without waiting for (Asean) summits. So Asean must be a little bit more time-sensitive, be seen as proactive and responsive," Mr Natalegawa said.
Contributing to efforts to achieve denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula does not have to wait until Asean leaders meet, he said.
"This is potentially a game-changing moment, actually. Perfection is the enemy of good. Asean must seize this. Asean must lock in this process. Don't wait until the senior ministers' meeting in July or the November summit."
To remain relevant in the next five decades, he said, the bloc must have the capacity to make a difference, understand the dynamics of power shifts and build a "dynamic equilibrium". Asean must be more ambitions and have its own script on international issues.
Beyond US-China relations, there is also the issue of tension between India and China, China and Japan and the two Koreas, among many other dynamics. "The relevant question is, so what? How can Asean actually navigate the situation?"
Decision-making based on consensus is the backbone of Asean unity, though reaching consensus on certain sensitive issues -- the South China Sea among them -- is very difficult. However, Asean will lose its relevance if it allows major powers to interfere with the domestic affairs of member states. It must build stronger mechanisms to protect the independence and sovereignty of member states to curb the negative impacts of rivalry among major global powers.