Is the capital's weather forecast soaked in gloom?

Is the capital's weather forecast soaked in gloom?

swamped: A motorcyclist drives through a flooded road in Nonthaburi. The flood was triggered by downpours that left some roads virtually impassable.
swamped: A motorcyclist drives through a flooded road in Nonthaburi. The flood was triggered by downpours that left some roads virtually impassable.

Heavy rainfall unseasonably battering Bangkok over the past two months has residents concerned. Will the storms only get worse with rising global temperatures?

Weather experts say the majority of people realise there is a major climate shift under way, but they have yet to adapt their lifestyles to tackle it head-on.

Since the start of the year, unusually high rainfall has soaked several districts in the capital -- in some cases, leading to major flooding.

Weather monitoring and water management authorities have received a steady barrage of complaints from citizens asking for help in carrying on with their daily lives amid the obstacles posed by flooding.

Over the months, netizens have shared countless stories and photos of flooded houses, schools shut down by inundations and cars stuck in water on their way to work.

The public agrees this is simply not normal.

Confirming these impressions, the Meteorological Department recently reported that rainfall levels in Bangkok in January and February saw an increase of 886% and 114%, respectively, compared to a 30-year baseline average.

The amount of rainfall over the past two months was measured at 131.2mm and 48.7mm, respectively -- a sharp contrast to the average rate of 13.2mm and 20mm in the same months recorded in the 30-year baseline average.

The highest amount of rainfall in the capital fell in line with the nationwide record. The amount increased by 227% and 55% in January and February, with 55.6mm recorded in January (compared to an average of 17mm) and 31.2mm (compared to an average of 20.1mm) last month in the 30-year baseline average.

The 30-year baseline refers to rainfall recorded between 1981 and 2010.

A weather expert from the Meteorological Department who declined to be named explained that the unusually high amount of rainfall was the result of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), referring to a major fluctuation in tropical weather.

It affects areas along the Equator from Africa to the Indian and Pacific Ocean.

The movement generates heavy rainfall when the influence of La Nina, a climate pattern involving the cooling of surface ocean waters, is relatively mild.

''It is obvious that the heavy rainfall of the past two months came from the MJO's influence," said the weather expert. "Usually it comes with the phenomenon of La Nina. It will not exhibit its power when the La Nina is very strong.

"January and February had a light La Nina. That is the reason why we had a large amount of rainfall at that time."

The expert added that the amount of rainfall is predicted to be slightly above average until the end of the rainy season.

According to the Department of Royal Irrigation, no drought is anticipated over the next few months.

Thailand has more than 36.12 billion cubic metres of water for use (76% for use), while four main dams along the Chao Phraya River basin currently hold 14.18 billion cubic metres of water (78% for use), compared to the 9.7 billion cubic metres available in the 2016 drought.

The weather expert added that MJO has affected several periods of heavy rainfall in the past, and was being further exacerbated by rising global temperatures.

In an effort to anticipate changes brought on by global warming, the Thai government has written a master plan for 2050 to adapt to these effects.

Phirun Saiyasitpanich, director of the Climate Change Management and Coordination Division at the Office of Natural Resources and Environmental Policy and Planning (Onep), said that the plan was based on a projection of temperature and rainfall over the next four decades.

The report found that the amount of rainfall will increase only slightly, but the pattern of rainfall dispersal appears to be different. Heavier rainfall is expected, but for shorter periods of time.

Meanwhile, the average temperature is expected to rise by between 0.5-1.5 degrees Celsius over the next two decades, and by 2-2.5 degrees Celsius after 2036.

"Please, do not panic," the weather expert urged. "The scenario is just a prediction and we need it to set up an effective plan to deal with the future of climate change."

Mr Phirun said that Onep is planning to introduce a pilot project for climate change adaptation in Chiang Rai, Udon Thani and six provinces along the Andaman Sea and the Chao Phraya plain basin.

Areas were selected for the different problems they are facing as a result of climate change.

For the area along the Chao Phraya River basin, farmers will be advised on how to adapt their rice plantations in the face of heavy flooding, a problem they have dealt with in recent years.

The adaptation plan would encourage them to switch their rice species to water-resistant ones, or change to another crop entirely.

Mr Phirun said a proposal of the plan will be presented to locals and their feedback will be taken into account.

Under the Paris Agreement, Thailand has committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 20-25% by 2030 as part of a global push to keep the world temperature below 2 degrees Celsius.

Jacques-chai Chomthongdi, a member of the Thai Working Group for Climate Justice, says that despite Thailand signing on to the agreement, Thai citizens generally show less desire to adapt to the impacts of climate change.

He noted education was key in spreading awareness. In the struggle to adapt, Mr Jacques-chai says that the rich will have a greater chance of coping, while the poor whose livelihoods are dependent on nature will be most strongly impacted.

He further warned that climate change could lead to natural disasters, which few people are prepared for.

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