Election tipped to help lift GDP to 4%

Election tipped to help lift GDP to 4%

US-China trade war seen crimping growth

Thailand's GDP is tipped to grow 3.8-4.2% thanks to the elections next year, which are expected to generate 80 billion baht.

The polls are likely to add 0.5% to the economy but Thailand will still suffer some negative impacts from the US-China trade war, experts said.

Thanavath Phonvichai, vice president for research at the Thai Chamber of Commerce University, made the remarks at a seminar yesterday.

"It is most likely that the economy will grow by no less than 4% as it will enjoy spending by political parties and canvassers in the elections of around 80 billion baht," he said.

"That includes 40 billion baht for the MP elections and 40 billion baht for members of local administration elections such as provincial administrative organisations and tambon administrative organisations," he added.

"The money generated from the elections will push for 0.5% growth, I believe the competition will be fierce and spending will be big including the expenses in hiring the accompanying team, the production of election campaign posters, and other activities that will help the local economy to enjoy another boost."

He said investment in the government's Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) project worth about 200 billion to 300 billion baht would be another factor shielding the Thai economy from foreign factors like the global trade war.

Thailand may raise interest rates at the end of the second quarter, he added.

For this year, he said, Thai GDP could expand by 3.5-4.2% due in part to all the money spent during the tourism high season.

Vichai Assarasakorn, vice chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said he hoped the winning party in the upcoming election would not scrap the regime's 20-year national strategy as that would erode investors' confidence.

"The national strategy is a plan that drives the economy in the long run. It will lead to stability and sustainability. It also came from all sectors, which is good," he said.

"The real problem lies in implementation. If all parties join hands determinedly, the country can reach its goal," he added.

He said it was normal for government policy to change with every new administration. Consequently, investors have to change their plans, too, to stay aligned. As such, a national strategy would help the private sector formulate a long-term plan.

At a national strategy meeting chaired by Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha yesterday, the master plans for 23 areas of development, following the 20-year national strategy, were approved, a source said.

Fifteen issues were declared "urgent" and given priority until 2024, the source said.

They include the grassroots level economy, national security, corruption, pollution, an ageing society, education, public health services, EEC projects and logistics, as well as tourism and high potential industries, the source added.

Do you like the content of this article?
COMMENT (1)