The major annual military reshuffle at the end of September is once again expected to provide a solid cushion for Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha beyond the general election tentatively set for early next year, according to a military source.
Although assistant army chief Gen Apirat Kongsompong is tipped to be in line to take over the top post in September, he belongs to the Wongthewan clique and not the powerful Burapa Phayak circles of elite commanders, of which Gen Prayut and his deputy Prawit Wongsuwon are members.
The source said that despite Gen Apirat -- son of the late strongman Gen Sunthorn Kongsompong who engineered the coup that overthrew the Chatichai Choonhavan government in 1991 -- being a Wongthewan, his allegiance lies with Gen Prayut. Lt Gen Apirat was one of the movers of the May 22, 2014 coup when he supervised the 1st Division, King's Guard, which was a key unit in the putsch.
Another leading Wongthewan figure, Maj Gen Narongpan Jitkaewthae, is also a strong contender to lead the First Army Region in the September reshuffle after being promoted to acting deputy commander of the region on April 1.
The source said even if the Wongthewans assume two of the most important posts in the army at the same time, the balance of power in the force is not going to tip away from Gen Prayut.
Gen Apirat's closeness to Gen Prayut, who oversaw the former's rapid rise through the army's senior ranks following the 2014 coup, will keep the military support for the National Council for Peace and Order, of which Gen Prayut is the head, intact, according to the source.
That support is likely to extend well beyond the next poll expected early next year, given the fact that Gen Apirat does not retire until 2020.
Gen Apirat has what it will take to rally the military firmly behind Gen Prayut and solidify his support base in the barracks. A stable and united military will be crucial for Gen Prayut to realise his political ambition of becoming an outsider prime minister after the next poll.
Political experts say Gen Prayut has only two options in his bid to return as prime minister post-election. One is to be nominated by a political party and the majority MPs vote him to premiership. Alternatively, he may be voted in by both Houses to be an outsider prime minister without being nominated by MPs, if the first option fails.
Gen Prayut would clinch the outsider prime minister seat with greater ease if there is an army which he believes will be able to control any social or political unrest which might break out after the poll, or if and when he takes over as an outsider premiership, said the source.
The source said Gen Apirat is Gen Prayut's trusted lieutenant entrusted with some "covert political missions". Apart from his fast-track career advancement in a span of less than four years, he has also been appointed chairman of the board of the Government Lottery Office.
In the short term, the Wongthewan clique is not likely to have too much influence over the army as both Gen Apirat and Maj Gen Narongpan, who could be a future army chief, have retained strong ties with Gen Prawit as well as Interior Minister and former army chief Gen Anupong Paojinda. The two generals are highly respected figures in the NCPO.
The Wongthewan members are in charge of a limited number of army units, most notably in the 1st Division, King's Guard. The Burapa Phayak chain, in the meantime, has major influence in the First Army Region with commanders of many key units.
The source noted it might be hard for the Wongthewan to continue holding supreme power in the First Army Region after Gen Apirat and Maj Gen Narongpan. The only candidate from the clique who could make the cut for the future region chief is Maj Gen Songwit Noonpakdi, commander of the 1st Division, King's Guard.
