The Pheu Thai Party has been thrown into disarray as it wrestles with a political group seeking to poach the party's members to join a pro-regime party and support the return of Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha to power.
A gathering of dozens of political bigwigs last Wednesday at the Pinehurst Golf & Country Club hosted by the so-called Sam Mitr group, or Three Allies, has confirmed the speculation. This grouping is run by former transport minister Suriya Jungrungreangkij, former industry minister Somsak Thepsuthin and and the other one believed to be Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak.
The Pinehurst event, which was brought forward from June 30, was attended by about 50 former MPs many of whom were formally with the Thai Rak Thai Party and the People's Power Party. Those parties were dissolved by the Constitutional Court for electoral fraud. Others were from the Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai parties.
However, political insiders claim the group led by Mr Suriya has a major announcement to make later this week. The announcement is believed to involve the inclusion of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), aka the red shirts, a staunch opponent of the regime, into the bloc.
Pirom Polwiset, a former Nakhon Ratchasima MP under the dissolved PPP who has hooked up with the pro-regime group, said the announcement concerns national reconciliation.
On the same day in Nakhon Ratchasima, the Phalang Korat group comprising the province's former MPs was formed and pledged allegiance to the pro-regime Phalang Pracharat Party. The Sam Mitr group is said to be close to this party, with Mr Somkid also said to be the party's key man. Its leading members include Suporn Atthawong, a former key figure of the UDD, and former Pheu Thai member Somchai Phetprasert.
According to a source in the Pheu Thai Party who has decided to defect to the pro-regime group, the Sam Mitr faction has reached out to mid-level leaders of the UDD in several provinces to join the pro-regime party. The switching of allegiances is not a surprise because local red-shirt leaders have been "inactive" since the 2014 coup and those who remain critical of the regime are hard-core UDD leaders such as Natthawut Saikuar and Worachai Hema.
In his view, the UDD is collapsing and those in power have been working to dismantle the Pheu Thai Party's power base. By the end of this month, the former ruling party might be able to retain just 20% of its former MPs. "It's every man for himself. The UDD is no longer here. The group failed to launch a political party so they came around to hook up with the Phalang Pracharat Party. Mr Suporn has recently realigned himself with Sam Mitr," said the source.
According to the source, what remains to be seen is what these red-shirt members have to say about their past with former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the Pheu Thai's de facto leader. Based on earlier reports, some 30-40 seats which the Pheu Thai commanded in northeastern provinces such as Buri Ram, Surin and Si Sa Ket are no longer there for the party's taking.
The Pheu Thai's best hopes will be in the upper northeastern provinces such as Udon Thani, Nakhon Phanom, Mukdahan, Roi Et, and Khon Kaen with about 70 seats. When the Phalang Pracharat Party is formally launched, more politicians are likely to come running to the new party when "the dam will finally burst," said the source.
Known to have realigned with the pro-regime party are Preecha Rengsomboonsuk, a former MP who won elections repeatedly in the northeastern province of Loei, and Wirat Rattanaseth, a veteran in Nakhon Ratchasima, who is likely to make the province a tough race for Pheu Thai.
One of the former Pheu Thai politicians who joined the Sam Mitr group said he decided to defect because the group has a clear strategy and resources at its disposal. The regime and its allies are expected to go all-out to reduce competition including recruiting veteran politicians and using state mechanisms in their favour, said the source. "The Thai Niyom and Pracha Rath projects are more than populist schemes. I think the people will be swayed by this policy," said the former Pheu Thai member.
The source also confirmed the defection of Supol Fongngam, a former deputy interior minister and former Pheu Thai MP in Ubon Ratchathani, who will screen candidates for certain provinces including Amnat Charoen, Mukdahan, and Yasothon.
Phalang Pracharat, he said, is driven by two groups -- politicians and the military. The former is believed to be led by Mr Somkid, Mr Sonthirat and the Sam Mit group, and the latter by senior military officers in the provinces, but all roads appear to lead to Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon. "A lot of work has been going behind the scenes and several politicians have defected to the party. But Mr Suriya and Mr Somsak are the ones who show to the public that the UDD is disintegrating."
