Continuity of policies the key

Continuity of policies the key

Business leaders upbeat about election results

People cast their vote on Sunday. VARUTH HIRUNYATHEB
People cast their vote on Sunday. VARUTH HIRUNYATHEB

The nation's business leaders are optimistic about the prospective election results, seeing political stability as a boon to GDP growth and tourism, while urging the government to not delay its scheduled investment projects like the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC).

With the Palang Pracharath Party likely to form a new government and Prayut Chan-o-cha continuing his role as prime minister, the past government's main economic policies will likely be unchanged. The EEC project was the military government's flagship investment programme.

It is uncertain how a new government will respond to obstacles like stalling GDP growth, declining exports and disruptions to Asian supply chains from a US-China trade war.

BUSINESS AS USUAL

The Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) is confident economic growth momentum will continue unabated, despite a bumpy political road in the short run following Sunday's general election outcome.

Despite uncertainties regarding the formation of the new government, the situation will eventually resolve itself, said Pisit Puapan, the FPO's executive director of macroeconomic policy.

"Thailand faced several political uncertainties in the past, but the country's economy continues to grow because of solid economic fundamentals," he said.

Pisit Puapan

Mr Pisit said Thailand's economic fundamentals are strong because of high foreign reserves, low public debt, solid financial institutions and private sector profitability as seen by listed companies' profits.

He said the FPO is scheduled to revise its forecast for economic growth this year in April due to the poor performance of Thai exports as a result of softer global demand.

However, Thailand is not alone in feeling lighter exports. Other corners of the world also suffered the same fate and this discouraged the US Federal Reserve from spiking its interest rate further, said Mr Pisit.

The Finance Ministry's think tank predicts outbound merchandise shipments will rise 4.5% this year.

NO TIME TO REST

Kalin Sarasin, chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said until the new government is formed, the private sector hopes it will not shift to "neutral gear" and stall economic progress.

During past transition periods, state officials were often accused of stalling until the new government was formed and not performing their duties as they should, he said.

Kalin Sarasin

"State agencies that have handled investment projects should not shift to neutral gear, as now is the period foreigners not only want to invest in Thailand but also visit the country," Mr Kalin said.

"Many good policies such as the EEC, educational development and competitiveness development should be continued without any disruptions."

Regarding the controversial wage issue, he said he views the wage hike as not an obstacle as long as the government also improves the skills and quality of the workforce.

MORE SPENDING, MORE TOURISM

William Heinecke, chief executive of Minor Group, said he expects to see an increase in government spending and investment incentives to drive economic growth.

Economic growth will be bolstered by investment and consumption, rather than just current exports, he said.

William Heinecke

The company expects Minor's restaurant business, of which more than 60% of revenue comes from the domestic market, will benefit from the improvement in overall domestic consumption.

Mr Heinecke said political stability will support continued growth of tourism.

This year, the number of inbound tourists is expected to grow by more than 8% to over 41 million visitors, while Chinese tourists will continue to be an important feeder market from China's growing middle class.

Regardless of which party runs government, Thailand has always positioned itself as a tourism playground and will continue to be one of the most popular global tourism destinations.

"Given the numerous political disruptions in the history of Thailand and its track record of economic growth, I remain fully confident about the potential of the country," he said.

DON'T FORGET FARMERS

Supant Mongkolsuthree, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), said the time is right for the new government to push the country forward and better follow international standards and rules.

He said the new government should prepare a framework and get to work as fast as it can.

Supant Mongkolsuthree

The first priority should be restructuring agricultural prices nationwide for rubber, rice, palm and sugar cane to make the largest impact on local economies.

"If the new government can restructure agricultural prices in Thailand, it will build strong purchasing power in the country as more than 70% of the population are in the farming sector," Mr Supant said.

"The FTI believes Thailand can solve its local economic problems this way in the long term."

He said such moves will reduce populism in local politics, while reducing future governments' welfare burden and decreasing corruption.

The FTI expects to see the new government continue past economic policies, including the EEC.

A man picks up campaign billboards of political parties after the end of the March 24 poll. PAWAT LAOPAISARNTAKSIN

"The EEC project is a good scheme to move Thailand's economy forward," said Mr Supant. "Foreign investors say long-term investments would be affected if the new government changed its policy regarding the EEC."

He said if a new administration is able to form peacefully in the next two weeks, it is a good sign for long-term investment in Thailand.

The FTI expects Palang Pracharath Party will lead a new coalition government.

However, the organisation is worried that if another party questions the election results, it may lead to destabilising protests.

FOREIGNERS CONFIDENT

Stanley Kang, chairman of the Joint Foreign Chamber of Commerce in Thailand, said foreign investors remain confident in Thailand's economic prospects and are keen to continue their investments in the kingdom.

Stanley Kang

"Most foreigners see Thailand's image as improving after the smooth election and want the new government to proceed with key investment projects," Mr Kang said.

"No matter who forms the new government, we want it to rev up trade talks, be they free trade agreements or the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, and move ahead with anti-corruption measures," he said.


Additional reporting by Phusadee Arunmas

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