The results of the Democrat Party's much anticipated leadership race will be revealed on Wednesday and the odds are likely to swing in Jurin Laksanavisit's favour, according to a highly placed source in the party.
The election is boiling down to numbers, which hold the key to victory for one of the four candidates who are competing neck-and-neck to lead the country's oldest party.
Pundits are predicting Mr Jurin will be able to push himself across the finish line ahead of other high-calibre candidates such as Korn Chatikavanij, Apirak Kosayodhin and Pirapan Salirathvibhaga.
The votes to select the new leader are distributed across the party, with ballots handed to the party's 52 constituency MPs who won seats in the March 24 general election, as well as 255 party executives and members who used to be MPs, ministers or secretary-generals and who are local leaders and party representatives.
However, not all MPs and members carry equal weight in the vote.
The 52 MPs account for 70% of the total while the 255 members make up the remaining 30%.
The source said whoever secures the majority of votes from the 52 MPs has a promising chance of winning the top post.
Victory will also hinge on which candidate manages to win over party heavyweights.
Breaking down the 52 MPs, 19 are on the party list and the rest are constituency MPs. Most of the party-list MPs are believed to be loyal to former Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva.
Of the 33 constituency MPs, eight are from the Central Plains, one from the North, two from the Northeast and 22 from the South -- the Democrats' traditional stronghold.
It is widely speculated that regardless of who is named leader, they are likely to agree to the idea of joining a coalition government headed by the pro-regime Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP). However, no candidate has confirmed this yet.
The Democrats' patriarch, Chuan Leekpai, insists members must respect the party's decision to await approval from its new executive board, which will be sworn in after the new leader is chosen, before deciding whether to align itself with the PPRP-led camp.
So far, Mr Jurin is being touted as the strongest candidate, backed by at least three well-respected Democrats who are former party leaders: Mr Chuan, Mr Abhisit and Banyat Bantadtan.
They command much support within the party, including the decisive 70% vote from current MPs. With their backing, Mr Jurin could also tap into the other 30%, which is expected to be shared in almost equal proportions among the other candidates, according to the source.
Mr Jurin is also well-versed in political affairs, meeting regulations and how to counter rival MPs in debating motions, according to the party source.
Trailing Mr Jurin is Mr Pirapan, the last to throw his hat in the ring. Yet he has gained ground after showing he prefers to avoid the influence of party figures.
He has also vowed not to let the party be subject to outside interference, and is likely a preferred choice among those who want the party to join the PPRP-led coalition.
For hard-working Mr Korn, the contest has been fraught with challenges. Despite being seen as the most suitable contender to take the baton from fellow Oxford graduate Mr Abhisit, he has not gained substantial support from incumbent MPs.
Mr Korn hopes having Tak MP Chaiwut Bannawat on his team will make a difference as Mr Chaiwut is widely respected in and outside the party.
Mr Apirak, while popular among new Democrats, has had trouble reconnecting with the party due to his long absence.