Since downpours from the North swept down into the central Chao Phraya River basin early last month, people are fearfully bracing for the next big flood to hit Bangkok. The Thai government tells the public it is making a concentrated effort to ensure the capital will be protected from future flooding. Despite the heavy rainfall this year, leaders have dismissed the possibility of another flood like 2011's.
While the people of Bangkok bank on these promises, northern and Central Plains areas cannot feel so assured -- some have been under water for over a month now.
This year the Northeast region experienced particularly heavy and damaging rainfall. But media coverage of these floods has received little attention compared to those lashing the economically key Central Plains area.
According to the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation's most recent report, 23 provinces in the North and upper Central Plains were severely affected at the peak of the latest flooding crisis, starting on Oct 10. Eleven of those provinces still have inundated areas.
As of last Friday, 327,420 people were directly affected by the floods, with 47 households evacuated and 24 people left dead.
As an area geographically disposed to flooding, riverside communities in Thailand's Central Plains are accustomed to overflows. Flooding tends to take place on a yearly basis at the end of the three-month Buddhist Lent, and leaves the ground dry in approximately a month's time.
Middle-aged and elderly people from these communities look back on memories of flooding from their childhood with a sense of amusement, having used it as an excuse to go swimming.
They also saw it as a positive boost to distribute soil nutrients to plants. That feeling has changed in the last decade, with floodwaters rising and staying long enough that it can no longer be treated as a fleeting amusement. The scale of devastation is getting larger by the year.
State plans to amend the annual flooding crisis have ostensibly failed to adapt to the increasingly extreme conditions, with the poor left feeling particularly left to fend for themselves.
THE NEXT BIG ONE
After the 2011 floods, people already began bracing for the next deluge to descend. The floods affected over 13 million people, leading to over 680 deaths and causing damage and losses worth an estimated 1.43 trillion baht to the economy, report the World Bank.
In the aftermath, walls were erected to shield industrial estates. Roads were elevated. New housing projects in Bangkok's suburbs raised the floors' ground level and built walls that would ensure they would be protected from any floods.
Politics became entangled with the flooding. Former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra's failure to curb the floods became an opportunity for opponents to attack her government. Bangkok citizens expressed a particular disapproval of how her cabinet handled the disaster.
The same pressure to protect the capital from future flooding now rests on Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha's government. Failure to stop it would mean a major loss of power and popularity for the military regime.
Heavy rainfall in the North, Northeast and Central regions throughout the second half of the year is connected to typhoons like Talas, Sonca and Doksuri, which swept across Southeast Asia.
Early last month, the Thai government revealed that dams in both areas were nearly full and required the water to be discharged.
As of Oct 24, the Royal Irrigation Department (RID) reported that accumulated rainfall reached 1,771 millimetres. The calculated rainfall in the same time frame in 2011 was similarly high at 1,798 millimetres.
Throughout all this, the military government has been subjected to daily questioning -- what will happen if Bangkok goes under water like in 2011? According to them, they have a plan.
STEMMING THE FLOW
In the latest wave of flooding, the RID has taken the lead in prevention tactics. Director-general Gen Somkiat Prachamwong has continually reassured the public they have a "good strategy" -- to identify spaces to redirect and store the water.
Before arriving in the Central Plains, excess water from the northern basin is held in dams or reservoirs. The water that then makes it way south to the Chao Phraya basin and is transferred to agricultural fields to harvest crops. However, flooding can inhibit farmers' ability to cultivate the crops despite the government's claim to having an action plan.
By mid-last month, it was apparent the rainwater was not receding. The Chao Phraya's water levels and its subsidiaries continued rising, forcing some dams to discharge water above normal levels.
While this has inundated some low-lying riverside communities, the RID insists that Bangkok and other major industrial areas will avoid being flooded. Retained water is expected to be discharged into a range of rivers throughout the month.
Normal water levels are expected to be restored by the end of next month.
When Prime Minister Prayut visited Ang Thong on Oct 30 to follow up on flooding reports, he expressed gratitude for the "sacrifice" of locals whose communities were affected. He also declared that the government had achieved a flood management plan that would reduce the damage and loss. Those affected will get a "remedy", he said, although the form of that remains unclear.
Left unsaid in the prime minister's speech, however, was the fact that though Bangkok has been spared, peripheral communities have been forced to hold onto the rainwater for longer than usual. Livelihoods in turn have been disrupted, and a reported lack of aid lingers.
RAIN CHECK
"Floods this year were very unusual," says Soonthon Pongphao, 46, a local from Bang Ban district, Ayutthaya. "The inundation period is very long. Floodwater levels are high."
Located on flood-prone land, Bang Ban is used to annual flooding near the end of the rainy season. But in the last four months, there were six instances of flash and regular flooding, with the most extreme case being one community whose flooding from two months ago has remained to the day.
Several locals work in factories or industrial estates, which were severely affected by 2011 floods but not this year. These affect people's ability to commute to and from work.
The elderly, particularly those who are bedridden, cannot leave the house to see doctors. Floods further affect rice farmers as it slows down their production. Seasonal crops are usually harvested in the last three months of the year, which is when off-season crops are cultivated.
Following the 2011 floods, a cash and recovery allowance was made available for flood-affected households. People in Bang Ban reported that urban households got much higher coverage for damaged properties than rural households.
This is due to the fact that the floors of traditional rural houses are built above the ground, so physical damage is estimated to be much lower than modern houses, built right on the ground.
Locals in Bang Ban feel this is unfair as the disruption to their livelihoods and incomes has not been registered as losses.
"Our communities are vulnerable to flooding," says Mr Soonthon. "We're living in a low-lying area, so it's impossible for us to not to be flooded. But this flooding must be managed with fairness.
"You must ask affected people if they are happy to make sacrifices and what level of sacrifice they can endure. I think we've made a sacrifice by letting water flood into our field. But letting communities stay inundated for long months is forcing them to struggle."
He adds that people do not want to depend on public donations but need a fair and effective flood management plan to rely on that takes into account community concerns.
THE MOST VULNERABLE
One quarter of the provinces affected by flood are in the 20 poorest Thai provinces.
Data on the percentage of poor people in each province gathered by the National Economic and Social Development Board last year shows that flooded provinces in the central plains like Chai Nat have a 28.34% poor population, Lop Buri at 10.52% and Ang Thong at 14.54%.
Flooded provinces in the Northeast also have high concentrations of poor people, including Kalasin (31.99%), Maha Sarakham (14.68%) and Sakhon Nakhon (13.81%). These provinces depend heavily on the agriculture sector, with a large segment of farmers.
In March, rice farmers in Chai Nat were urged by local administration officials to limit growing off-season crops out of fear for water shortages. Several rice fields in the province have been under water since last month.
A Bangkok Post reporter based in Chai Nat, Chudetch Sihawong, has reported that farmers and low-income workers have been dealt the worst of the floods' effects. With their limited income, they must rely heavily on local government's aid to deliver daily food and medicine.
Some have spent their savings trying to survive. With a lack of credit to take on formal loans from banks, they are likely to be driven to take on informal loans with high interest rates. A rapid assessment of the 2011 flood impacts by the World Bank and Finance Ministry found that the emergence of a "new poor" was likely linked to the floods, with so many low-income households and livelihoods affected.
According to calculations, at least 110 billion baht in wages was lost during the flooding.
Several of the most severely affected people do not have regular access to formal finances, contributing to a tension between the poor and the rich, as the former perceives residents of Bangkok's central business district to be largely unaffected, according to the assessment.
Despite this, the losses inflicted on the poor are regularly overlooked when anticipating flood impacts -- for example, the latest flooding that has inundated several state-run schools. These schools offer affordable education to low-income families.
"Most of our students are from poor families," says Banjong Kladnum, an operation committee member of state-run Ban Nong Phai-Mab Chum Seang School in Pho Thale district of Phichit. "Their parents can't afford education in urban areas."
The school has flooded since early last month, with two metre-high water at peak flooding. School operators were forced to delay the semester start for two weeks, initially set for Nov 1.
WAVE OF DEATHS
In October, 18 deaths were recorded as a result of the flooding, although the specifics of how remain unclear.
The Department of Disease Control's director-general Suwanchai Wattanayingcharoen told media on Oct 29 that 63% of the dead, including only the fatal cases that were reported to local hospitals, were children between the ages of one to 18.
Reports say that the adult deaths largely took place when they were travelling in flooded areas. Several cases affected poorer segments of society
Labourer Wichai Sumethee, 57, drowned on Nov 4 when travelling on foot from the sand pit where he was working to his home in Bang Ban district, Ayutthaya. Since his regular route home was flooded, he parked his motorcycle on the roadside and attempted to walk through the path home.
Visut Boontieng, 55, drowned on Oct 26 as he swam away from his flooded house, with the water level inside measured at two metres. He was attempting to reach a nearby road in In Buri district of Sing Buri to get to a store and purchase food. His body was discovered the next day with a 100-baht banknote still held grasped in his left hand.
A disabled man with one leg, identified as Cha-lor, 49, drowned on Oct 20 after he fell out of a boat in front of his flooded house in Ban Mi district of Lop Buri. He was last seen leaving his mother's funeral at a temple, alone on the boat heading in the direction of his home.
On Oct 8, the deaths of two men -- Samrit Wantongsuk, 47, and Sompon Khanda, 48 -- were reported in a flooded area of Loei province. They died in separate places but both drowned as they were paddling in the floodwater.
In Chaiyaphum, four deaths were reported in the most recent flooding. One of the victims was a 10-year-old boy who drowned as he was swimming. The rest are so far unidentified. Local media reports say the deaths were likely caused by drowning while commuting.
RECOVERY EFFORTS
For schools like Wat Phrom Kesorn School in Phitsanulok's Bang Rakam district, classes cannot be suspended simply due to flooding.
"Most of the parents of our students are daily workers," says Uthai Khom-awut, the school's director. "They have to earn an income during the day. So they must put their kids at school so that their teachers can look after the kids throughout the day. Leaving the kid in a flooded house is not safe."
Mr Uthit has managed to borrow some life jackets from a local raft tour operator, which can be used by the 52 students as they commute from their home to school via boat. He notes that it is no simple task to request state money for resources to handle such needs.
Flood-affected communities seem to mostly survive through self-reliance.
Located in the middle of the Chao Phraya River, flowing through Ayutthaya province, the island of Koh Phra has been flooded for over a month but has only received aid packages intermittently.
Koh Phra is accustomed to annual flooding. The neighbouring land recently set up flood prevention walls and lifted ground that sends water into low-lying areas, meaning that the island now experiences heightened flooding levels.
With assistance from the Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre, the island community has set up a committee to monitor the daily water levels using the government's flood data and the dam's water discharge schedule to generate their own flood warning system.
When the water came, communities were warned through a wire broadcasting service, affording people time to prepare themselves and properties.
"Outside factors have impacts on flooding in our community," says a local Akekaluck Montreechon, 31. "It's a matter of people's interests. We're a low-lying community. We must take care of ourselves."
opening the floodgates: A large amount of water is released daily from Ubol Ratana Dam in Khon Kaen, which is the main cause of flooding in the province, as well as Roi Et and Maha Sarakham. PHOTOS: JAKKRAPAN NATANRI
rough around the edges: The rapid discharge of dam water causes erosion.
keep swimming: People travel by boat to join a ceremony at Samosorn Wanaram Temple in Khon Kaen. Floodwater reached a high of 1.8 metres.
betting the farm: Farmers harvest early in their rented rice paddies due to flooding in Phichit. สิทธิพจน์ เกบุ้ย
swamped: The city of Ayutthaya, situated on the Central Plains, is flooded. The low-lying area is frequently subjected to extreme flooding. PHOTO: SUNTHORN PONGPAO
head above water: People in Pathum Thani have put with persistent flooding since last month, resorting to boats to get around. PHOTO: Somchai Poomlard
forging a path: Pupils in Phitsanulok continue to go to school despite disruptive flooding. ชินวัฒน์ สิงหะ
open for business: A convenience store in Nakhon Sawan stays open amid flooding.
