Opponents of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and his National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) are in a "damned if I do, damned if I don't" situation when they cast their vote in Sunday's referendum on the draft charter.
Whether they vote "yes" or "no" to the draft constitution, written by public law wizard Meechai Ruchupan, the result will mean nothing to the political existence of the self-appointed prime minister and the power of the NCPO. Gen Prayut will certainly maintain his grip or even strengthen his hold on power until at least the second half of next year.
Despite no clear signal of what the junta will do if the draft is rejected, the country's two most powerful men -- Gen Prayut and Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon have promised the general election will be held "in accordance with the roadmap".
But which roadmap are they talking about?
Nopporn Wong-Anan is deputy editor, Bangkok Post.
Since the May 22, 2014 coup, the timeline for the general election in the "roadmap" has been pushed back several times.
A few months after the putsch, the roadmap designated that the polls could take place by September 2015 if the draft charter by legal guru Bowornsak Uwanno was passed, according to an infographic by the state mouthpiece, the National News Bureau of Thailand, in July 2014.
A more recent milestone said that should the Sunday plebiscite give the Meechai version the thumbs up, Thais can go to the polls by next August. But if it is voted down, elections will be delayed by a few months to the end of the year. Under this scenario, it is unclear how the government wants to handle the charter writing process -- whether it sets up a new panel to draft another one or revives and revises a previous charter that was torn up in past putsches.
Could the goalposts be moved further if the "no" votes outnumber "yes"? Plausible and possible. Could the "no" vote be a strategic move by the junta to prolong its political life?
Paisal Puechmongkol, an adviser to Gen Prawit, the "Big Brother" of the NCPO, has stated on his Facebook page that he will vote "no". The decision is a desire he shares with many others that national reform be comprehensively put in place before a general election is held, even if it means delaying the polls beyond the latter half of next year as per the NCPO roadmap.
Such a vote would also serve as a gauge of Gen Prayut's popularity, Mr Paisal said. It would simply imply that government supporters may decide on a strategic "no" vote as they want Gen Prayut to stay on longer as premier while a third draft charter is written, which might mean a redrawing of the roadmap and another delay in holding an election. On the other hand, other sources in the NCPO have told us that the junta has been mobilising its political machinery of resources from district army colonels to provincial governors and police chiefs to achieve its target of 70% "yes" votes for the draft charter.
Either way, Gen Prayut and his government will emerge as the winner. A "yes" result will mean a vote of confidence for his determination to deliver good work for the motherland. A "no" vote will mean a delay to the election as people want "peace and political stability" to continue and, as Mr Paisal has claimed, "reforms to be completed" ahead of civilian rule.
The prime minister insisted on Tuesday he will not step down in the event that the draft constitution is voted down.
"I am not willing to win over anyone. I just want to maintain my power to run the administration during this transition period," Gen Prayut said in response to calls by anti-coup groups for him to step down if the draft charter is shot down. "I have to stay in power anyway since I am also holding the position of the chief of the NCPO."
Of course, his political opponents and human rights defenders are unhappy to hear this, but for some top expatriate business leaders, he has earned their respect.
"The government is very conscious of trying to make it easier to do business here given the increasingly competitive environment in the region for foreign direct investment," Darren Buckley, country head of Citibank for Thailand, Cambodia, Myanmar and Laos, was quoted as saying in Nikkei Asian Review magazine.
"Incentives for regional headquarters, relaxation of some of the visa rules, a focus on digitisation as a national priority and enhanced anti-corruption measures are steps in the right direction, with more still to do," said Mr Buckley, also the chairman of the Association of International Banks in Thailand.
Therefore, the bottom line for the business community seems to be: "It doesn't matter if the cat is black or white, so long as it catches mice."