Adjusting to President Trump

Adjusting to President Trump

In his victory speech in the early hours of last Wednesday, US President-elect Donald Trump was clearly trying to strike a more conciliatory tone toward the outside world and specifically to those concerned that his campaign rhetoric could lead to testy economic, trade and diplomatic relations with America.

Even though Mr Trump has frequently pledged to protect US jobs from free trade agreements -- a promise he will presumably try to fulfill -- businesses in Asia, or more specifically in Asean member states, will, as businesses always do, adjust to the reality of the Trump presidency.

Globalisation and free trade have a huge constituency of malcontents in the western world. Export penetration and free trade agreements are going to be increasingly difficult to achieve with advanced economies now struggling to chalk up even anaemic economic growth.

Under Donald Trump, the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade pact is as good as dead. While the US Congress retains a Republican majority traditionally in tune with free trade, it is unlikely that any champion of the TPP will emerge, given the president-elect's heartland of support in rust-belt states such as Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin, where people feel jobs have been lost because of free trade.

While Mr Trump strives to "make America great again", businesspeople in Asia generally have their own regional development to look forward to. About 90% of global growth comes from outside the advanced countries.

There will of course be a loss of market size. But the Asean Economic Community, launched last Dec 31, offers a market of 630 million people with an economy of about US$2.6 trillion, the seventh largest in the world, and a young, productive population that is nearly two-thirds under 35 years of age.

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), meanwhile, is an Asean-centred free trade agreement comprising 16 Asia-Pacific countries, excluding the US. It offers the prospect of an economic region that is growing faster than the advanced countries of the West, producing 31% of global output with a market of 3.5 billion people.

Businesspeople in Asean countries, such as in the Philippines and Malaysia, are saying their leaders made the correct call to entrench relations, particularly economic, with China. China has been Asean's number one trading partner for years now. Even if foreign direct investment from China still lags that from the US, it will only catch up if America diverts its investments inward.

Japan, which is Asean's second largest trading partner as well as foreign investor, also offers opportunities in regional economic relations, as do India and South Korea.

So there are options and prospects that Mr Trump's America will also see, unless he leads the US into a truly isolationist position. This is unlikely given his business record and experience. American businesses clearly want to participate in regional growth. The US government will have to cut deals with regional counterparts to join in, and knows it cannot expect to have it all its way.

The critical factor in regional dynamics will be US ties with China under the Trump presidency. If he plays hardball on trade, relations would deteriorate. Such an erosion would extend beyond the economic field and affect cooperation over North Korea policy as well as over growing tensions in the South China Sea.

As Mr Trump has said, he would not want America involved in far-flung areas without clear benefit to itself -- and certainly without the more remote states bearing the cost. Under such a shift, Asean countries would possibly cut their own deals with Beijing over its claims to the South China Sea, and gravitate more toward China than they are already doing.

The situation for Japan, Australia and perhaps also India gets a little trickier as they adjust to a more intractable, isolationist and demanding America. But they would still have the option of greater regional integration.

No doubt there will be disruption for Asia under the Trump presidency. But it will not be as sweeping as we are seeing more generally in the world of technology -- where America, too, will have to adjust, including by preparing for the loss of jobs in the future, and the new white-collar challenge from Asia.


Munir Majid is visiting senior fellow at LSE Ideas, Centre for International Affairs, Diplomacy and Strategy. He is also the chairman of the CIMB Asean Research Institute, president of the Asean Business Club, and chairman of Bank Muamalat Malaysia. This commentary originally appeared in the Nikkei Asian Revie

Munir Majid

Chairman of the CIMB Asean Research Institute

Munir Majid is visiting senior fellow at LSE Ideas, Centre for International Affairs, Diplomacy and Strategy. He is also the chairman of the CIMB Asean Research Institute, president of the Asean Business Club, and chairman of Bank Muamalat Malaysia. This commentary originally appeared in the Nikkei Asian Review

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