Southeast Asia is looking for a precarious balance between the United States and China in order to feel more secure in the region, worried as it is by the behaviour of these two giants in its orbit.
Watching cautiously as Washington and Beijing test each other's responses in the early months of a Donald Trump presidency -- and while China shows little let-up in its assertive behaviour in the disputed waters of the South China Sea -- Southeast Asia would find ideal a healthy degree of tension between the two countries, one that is enough to keep a string taut enough without snapping.
In other words, enough of a US presence that would not be too in-your-face and draw China's ire, but not too weak as to allow Beijing to continue to assert its power in a Southeast Asia unable to find the voice to speak up to the country to its north.
"We don't want a shooting war with China, but we want I think the US to come in, show a bit more muscle and action as a way of enabling Southeast Asian countries to regain a new balance now that China has taken over much of the region," Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University, told a forum on Asian views of the US role this month.
"What Asians hope for is something that is neither all conflict or all cooperation in the US-China relationship," said Ellen Laipson, president emeritus of the Washington DC-based Stimson Centre.
"They don't want a G-2 world in which the US and China are so close that they make decisions for everybody else, but nor do they want the US-China relationship so conflictual that there is this constant worry about 'will this turn into hot conflict?'" she explained. "So something in between -- a friendly, competitive relationship where the United States and China will cooperate in some arenas and they will disagree and compete in others."
The geopolitical environment is far from reassuring for Southeast Asia, including Asean countries that pride themselves on being able to hold their own amid bigger powers. While Asean lauds its achievements in regional security as it marks its 50th anniversary, its weakness in the face of China's presence -- economic, political and military -- is evident. Dealing with China is a major test of Asean's centrality and unity.
China has been making deep, wide inroads, not least in projecting hard power. Over the years, it has built man-made structures in the South China Sea, occupied some reefs that were held by other claimant countries -- structures that can no longer be removed.
If China's moves to dam the Mekong River's upstream reaches drew some protests from Southeast Asian countries in the early 90s, these days they pretty much live with this reality and are part of China's own regional mechanism for the river, called the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation. Beijing has been busy with cooperation plans with various countries, the latest being Cambodia, on its "One Belt, One Road" initiative.
Chinese investment is growing in Asean countries. According to Asean Investment Report 2016, China's foreign direct investment in Asean rose 17% to $8.2 billion (288.7 billion baht) in 2015, compared to that of the EU which fell 20% to $20 billion, and the US by 17% to $12.2 billion. China is the top investor in the Lao PDR, Cambodia and Myanmar.
China has moved to limit or block public reference to and criticism of its actions in the South China Sea and shown little tolerance for countries like Singapore -- current coordinator for Asean-China relations -- that it finds uncooperative.
In September 2016, China successfully lobbied for the rejection by Venezuela, host of the Non-Aligned Movement summit, of the inclusion of updates about Southeast Asia that refer to the South China Sea, as requested by Laos, Asean chair that year. Beijing accused Singapore of pushing to bring up the issue, which Singapore denied.
Only in March did the tone of Chinese commentaries change after a bilateral meeting. 'Reference News', published by Xinhua news agency, said: "Singapore seems to finally realise the stakes involved."
In June 2016, Asean, under Chinese pressure, retracted a foreign ministers' statement expressing "serious concerns" over the tense situation in the South China Sea.
"China is winning in Southeast Asia and is winning over Southeast Asia," Mr Thitinan pointed out.
This is why Southeast Asians, while wary of Mr Trump's statements that point to an inward-looking United States, harbour the hope that his views about the need for a strong US military but avoiding as big a role as the world's superpower as before and letting other countries look after their own problems, offer a bonus: creating space for other allies to come in in multilateral fashion and head off China, analysts say.
"It would be ironic if his [Trump's] administration turns out to be more effective in rebalancing the geopolitical dynamics in Southeast Asia," said Mr Thitinan, citing a contrast to Barack Obama, who was very vocal about the region but under whose watch China's presence grew.
Southeast Asia hopes "that China's being all over the place, that this will change, that there will be more balance with US allies, partners and the US itself. Southeast Asia is hoping for a kind of rebalance that works -- more of the US, a lot of Japan, a lot of Australia, a bit of India-- and less China", Mr Thitinan added.
For now, he said, "Southeast Asia is going to be stuck between a rock and a hard place, or [Chinese Communist Party chief] Xi Jinping and [US President] Donald Trump."
If Mr Trump follows through on his words and takes hostile trade action against China and beefs up military presence in Southeast Asia, this would dramatically heighten tensions between Beijing and the US, and regional instability.
But if he does not actually do much despite the strong words, "then China will be all over the region", Mr Thitinan said. "So either way, it does not put Southeast Asia in a desirable position geopolitically."
Mr Trump's statements about the US playing less of a global role may have worried Asia given its role as a security guarantor, Ms Laipson said. But his February remarks about boosting the US defence budget to US$603 billion "could strengthen the security pillar that many Asians care about".
At the same time, Ms Laipson added, "If we talk about a very dramatic swing to a very large military US presence in the Asia-Pacific, there will be a Chinese reaction to that that will then move us on a path toward a more adversarial relationship possibly."
It is early days in the Trump presidency, and foreign policy watchers take heart from Mr Trump's assurance of "100%" support for Japan after North Korea's missile launch on March 6. Added Mr Thitinan: "So far, he's less insane than many people thought."
Johanna Son, a journalist based in Bangkok for 17 years, has followed Southeast Asian affairs for over two decades. She is editor and founder of the Reporting Asean media programme.