Let's make some assumptions. Let's say the military regime definitely plans for a long stay in Thai politics. Let's say Prime Minister Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha is positioning to come back for a second term. Let's say the rules of the game, both for the next election and post-poll political landscape have been set to favour this military-guided "democracy" scenario.
What or who can stand in the regime's way?
It may sound like hyperbole at the moment. But the array of expensive watches spotted on Deputy Prime Minister Gen Prawit Wongsuwon's wrist could foretell the end of the military's time.
Atiya Achakulwisut is a columnist, Bangkok Post.
Yes, we are talking about the Richard Milles, Patek Phillipes, Rolexes and possibly an Audemars Piquet that have been in the news with no explanation as to where they come from.
The watches will certainly be a problem if their whereabouts remain mysterious. However, it's hypocrisy that will do the regime in.
Officially, Gen Prawit has until Jan 8 to tell the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) why the luxury watches, possibly worth more than 10 million baht altogether, were in his possession but never declared as assets.
Publicly, his inability to come up with a valid explanation immediately cast a cloud of suspicion. Attempts by his handlers to offer possible explanations as to why the watches were undeclared including one that said they were on loan from Gen Prawit's friend, who has since died, were laughable.
At the core, Gen Prawit's watches scandal is about allegations of being "unusually rich". It is about an alleged attempt to conceal assets that may be acquired illegally. It's about alleged corruption, an issue which the military government vowed to fight and one it has used to underpin its anti-politician, anti-liberal democracy brand of government.
It's about corruption which this government has accused past administrations of failing to tackle. The military regime, Gen Prayut in particular, often made a point about it being the non-partisan political player that came in to save the country's law and order with no vested interest.
"Has any past government done what this government has done?" is frequently on the lips of Gen Prayut as he boasts about new laws or policies being issued that he believes will do the country good. It's exactly on this non-corrupt, non-partisan platform that the regime plans to maintain its grip on political power after the election.
The regime's attempt to look the other way when it comes to Gen Prawit's watches scandal could threaten the integrity of that platform.
PM Gen Prayut tried to cut some slack for the deputy PM, saying it was a personal matter for Gen Prawit, which is a major disappointment for a man who promised to bring about a better, cleaner Thailand. Instead of urging his deputy to clear the air, the PM's remarks could be seen as an attempt to play down a possible act of corruption. It may be considered a form of nepotism, which the regime has also accused past governments of resorting to.
Without a strong stance against corruption and nepotism, what difference will Gen Prayut make against career politicians? If the military regime has also gone where every politician went before, where is the new hope?
Gen Prayut's interpretation of media pressure on Gen Prawit as a sinister plot designed to tear him away from his "big brother" and weaken the military regime misses the point.
It seems the PM does not consider the scandal, amid allegations that Gen Prawit intentionally concealed assets or is unusually rich, with all that may entail, as a big deal. But how about similar offences by past public figures which the regime seems to regard as major crimes?
How about the "honest mistake" made by former PM Thaksin Shinawatra who claimed he forgot to list some of his stocks in his assets declaration? Or the late Samak Sundaravej who was stripped of his premiership for hosting a paid cooking programme on TV which was considered a conflict of interest?
Would Gen Prayut say that these figures violated the law or would he say they were just victims of politics and its sinister plots, like his "big brother"?
The most comical reaction from members of the government and top brass, however, is them now avoiding wearing expensive timepieces that may catch the media's attention and land them in trouble. These same people are saying they are anti-graft crusaders, that they deserve to be in power for the long haul to clean up the country.
Who will watch their watches?