How much is Deputy Prime Minister Gen Prawit Wongsuwon worth? Is the military regime willing to bet the farm to save the scandalous "Rolex general" at all costs?
From the looks of things, the answer is yes.
Gen Prawit is not known as the government's "Big Brother" for nothing. It is well-known he serves as the power broker, prized for his connections to various political groups and his ability to bring them into the fold.
Atiya Achakulwisut is a columnist, Bangkok Post.
His saviour is thus the next election. Without him, who will be the regime's maven? Who will prepare the ground for Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha to return as an outsider PM? Who will handle political parties with their different demands and agendas to ensure there is a strong enough base for the top brass to stay in power for at least 20 years as planned?
His utility may not be the only reason. His strong ties to Gen Prayut who always credited him as his blood brother and protégé are well-known. The two have been through thick and thin. As soldiers, neither one of them would want to be seen as abandoning the other when things get tough.
The question now, however, is whether Gen Prawit's incrementally clumsy reactions to the watches scandal can be contained at all.
His barely credible explanation that the more than half a dozen watches worth almost 30 million baht he has been seen wearing over the past few years were on loan from friends has put the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) in a tight corner. His arrogant reply that he would resign if the anti-graft agency found him at fault is turning the regime's good governance and anti-corruption policies into ruins.
Amid this roaring scandal, with international media picking up on the story of the Rolex general, the cost of saving Big Brother is becoming forbiddingly high.
It's comedic that the powerful Gen Prawit is handling his problem in a way that is similar to a street food vendor: making the original outrage go from bad to worse without seemingly realising it.
Remember the recent case of one such vendor in Pratunam widely criticised for overpricing a plate of rice topped with fried crispy pork with basil and egg at 150 baht? Following an uproar on social media, the vendor explained that the 150-baht price was only for Chinese tourists. For Thais, the dish would cost 80 baht.
All of a sudden, the problem of a vendor overpricing her food, which would have been a just local pain, blew up on the international scene as Chinese people complained about the Thai habit of double-pricing for tourists, some of whom threatened not to visit again.
What is most laughable is that the street food vendor apparently didn't realise she would create a much bigger scandal in trying to explain away the original one. The same situation applies to Gen Prawit, except he is a deputy premier. He should have known better. In fact, he is obliged to set a higher professional standard.
Unfortunately, the DPM seems adamant in hanging on to his powerful position despite his weak explanation. In carving out an escape route just for himself, Gen Prawit pushed the burden of proof onto the anti-corruption agency. In choosing to defy public disapproval, he took the entire government hostage.
Gen Prawit's explanation that the watches seen on his wrist over the past few years were on loan from his friends might have been plausible if there were few of them. But 25 have been unearthed so far, some of them worth more than a million baht each.
Besides, one of the friends who reportedly loaned most, if not all, of timepieces to Gen Prawit died in February last year. However, the DPM was seen wearing those watches until December when he was photographed raising his hand to shield the sunlight. It does not make much sense for the watches to have remained with Gen Prawit after the owner died. It also sounds too convenient for the DPM to say now he has already returned all the watches to their owners.
The government is trying to make a last-ditch defence of its Big Brother by saying attempts to scrutinise his watch collection are made by ill-motivated groups keen to topple the government. And now the popular Facebook page Khai Maew which lampooned government affairs, including the "watchman" minister, has mysteriously gone off-line. Fears grow that intimidation is at play.
Just like the Watergate scandal, it's not the original mistake, a break-in, but attempts to cover it up that brought down the Nixon government.
Is the most-watched minister still worth saving?