The National Legislative Assembly (NLA) will tomorrow consider whether to endorse the proposed delay in the organic bill on MPs which would subsequently push out a general election to 2019.
I can bet the NLA will approve the controversial proposal which would delay enforcement of the law for at least 90 days after its promulgation. The delay was proposed by the NLA panel vetting the bill.
There are reports some members of the panel would even propose an extended delay to 120 days. That means the long-awaiting election will be delayed further.
Soonruth Bunyamanee is deputy editor, Bangkok Post.
Under the existing version of the bill, the law will be effective immediately after it is announced in the Royal Gazette.
Meanwhile, the constitution stipulates that the election must be held within 150 days of the bill coming into effect.
If the NLA approves the delay proposal, the election date would be put off from 150 days to at least 240 days. That means the election will be postponed from this November, as previously announced by Prime Minister Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha, for at least three months.
After the election, it could take another three to six months to endorse MPs and to form a new government.
It means the regime could stay longer in power, likely to the second half of next year.
Government spokesman Sansern Kaewkamnerd tried to distance the government and the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) from the delay, claiming they have no part in it. The idea was initiated by the NLA panel, he insisted.
But, in my view, if the planned election is postponed, the regime cannot deny responsibility.
According to Taweesak Suthakavatin, spokesman for the NLA panel, its decision stems from the NCPO chief's Order No.53, which involves the internal procedures of political parties.
The order has extended the time frame in which parties are required to get confirmation and membership fees from their members within 30 days of April 1 and allows new parties to be established from March 1.
The order overrides the law on parties, which stipulates that these procedures must be performed within 90 days after the legislation took effect on Oct 8 last year.
Mr Taweesak claimed that as this NCPO order extends the time frame for parties, the NLA panel has to extend the period for other relevant laws, otherwise parties would be unable to select their candidates in time.
His offered sympathies to the parties even though the parties have no complaints on the matter.
And we must not forget the reason the NCPO cited in issuing the Order No.53.
Since the NCPO refuses to lift its political activities ban, parties cannot perform their internal administrative work within the time frame required by the political parties law. As a result, the NCPO issued Order No.53 to extend the period required under the law.
If Mr Taweesak cited the NCPO's Order No.53 to back its decision to delay enforcement of the organic bill on MPs, the NCPO should be blamed, as its political ban is the root of the problem.
In this country, it may only be cabinet members who believe the junta did not order the NLA to delay the enforcement of the bill on MPs.
Indeed, there are also other grounds for us to believe the regime is behind the NLA's move to defer the election.
A government may opt to go to the polls early when it thinks it has an advantage over its political opponents, in particular when it has fulfilled its promises or delivered on policies made in the previous election and gained strong support.
But a government which has failed to keep its promises and lost much of its support will struggle to stay in power as long as it can. This happens to be the case for the military regime.
If the Prayut government is confident in its performance, popularity and support, it would not want to push out the poll.
Although the regime is not a political entity, there are several incidents that seem to suggest it will further involve itself in politics, maybe through political proxies, to extend its power after the election.
After several scandals, particularly the wristwatch saga of Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon, the regime has lost much of its support base.
In the latest Bangkok Poll survey conducted by Bangkok University, many people said they do not want a so-called "outsider" prime minister, referring to a non-elected premier, after the election. Gen Prayut is often tipped for that job.
Some 70.6% of 1,114 respondents said they only wanted an elected prime minister. Another 29.4% said they could settle for an outsider prime minister if an elected one could not be chosen from among prime ministerial candidates on parties' lists. The figure dropped from 48% in a 2015 survey.
Meanwhile, the survey result also shows Gen Prayut's support has dropped significantly. Only 36.8% said they would back Gen Prayut to stay on as premier, compared with 52.8% in an opinion survey conducted in May last year. About 35% said they would not support him while 28.4% abstained.
Support for Gen Prayut and his government is likely to shrink further if he keeps shrugging off public sentiment over the wristwatch scandal surrounding his "big brother", Gen Prawit.
Whether the prime minister can restore his support depends on how he acts in this case.
No matter how long he delays the poll, people will lose their trust in him if he cannot show the public how his government is different from its predecessors when it comes to cronyism.
