At the end of March, 97 political groups applied to be registered as political parties. Come April, public attention has turned to existing political parties whose party members are required to reconfirm their membership status. These are some of the steps the military regime under the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) has taken to manipulate our politics ahead of the election next year.
The intention is clear: to weaken the political party system in order to maintain its grip. The attempt is to prevent political parties recouping mass support. It is also to break up large existing political parties, in particular Pheu Thai.
By tradition, after a coup, all political parties were disbanded while the constitution was revoked. Once a new charter came into effect, political parties, old and new, would reorganise and run in elections. Party members did not matter much, most parties had a few thousand at most.
Suranand Vejjajiva was secretary-general to the prime minister during the Yingluck Shinawatra government and is now a political analyst.
In essence, political parties in Thailand were not mass supported organisations. In the late 1990s, only the Democrat Party, being the oldest on the block and which continued to survive the ups and downs of Thai political turmoil, could claim a large support base, with the number of card-carrying party members exceeding one million. But the number is largely stagnant.
Then in 1998 Thaksin Shinawatra formed the Thai Rak Thai (TRT) Party, modelling it on large political parties in Western democracies. The drive to register party members became the ritual of all party operatives, especially those aspiring to run for office. In some constituencies, candidates competed to prove to the party they had a strong support base by getting people to sign up. Stacks of membership forms appeared at party headquarters with the candidate presenting them to Thaksin and party executives.
It killed two birds with one stone: It was a screening process of sorts for candidates looking to run. At the same time, registered members also became loyal party supporters. The data was computerised and centrally controlled. At its peak, the number of TRT members surpassed 10 million.
Members were active in campaigning and turned out to vote. The party won consecutive elections and dominated popular votes nationwide. Party members also provided a strong base for political leverage against other parties which wanted to topple Thaksin.
It is clear the conservative elite in Thailand sees large political parties with a strong leader and with mass support as a threat to the old order.
But mass support for Thaksin was unprecedented. Even after the 2006 coup and the dissolution of TRT, former party members continued to provide a political base, even though not as formal party members of later reincarnated parties such as People's Power Party, also banned, and the present Pheu Thai Party.
Initially after the 2014 coup, there was talk of a political "reset" by dissolving all political parties. But resistance from them and elements that toppled the Pheu Thai government, made the coup leaders ditch the idea.
Through legal manoeuvrings, the NCPO issued order number 53/2560 to amend the Political Party law that took effect last year. The order essentially requires all party members to reconfirm their membership status within 30 days, by the end of April. It is of course, easier said than done. As the current number of Democrat Party members is about 1.3 million and Pheu Thai has hundreds of thousands, how can they achieve this task in such a short time?
But this is part of a plan -- a conspiracy against established political parties. Most parties will experience a shrinkage in membership, maintaining only a minimum as required by law, since it is now more costly and dangerous.
The law even makes the party membership application process harder. Before, membership required applicants give only their name and their 13-digit national identity number on an application form with a copy of their citizen identification card. Now, they have to pay an annual membership fee of 100 baht (or 2,000 baht for life) and the law also stipulates qualifications for members, that they must not be prohibited from running in elections in accordance with the constitution. This creates constraints, and opens ways to finding political party wrongdoings.
There is also another hidden agenda to this reconfirmation of party membership.
The intention of the NCPO was to tempt politicians into quitting major political parties, particularly Pheu Thai. By opening the door of party membership, it was anticipated that political factions, which held voter bases in various regions and provinces would abandon Thaksin and possibly join a political party more favourable to the regime. The break-up of Pheu Thai is the ultimate end-game.
During this month the political dust will be thicker than the smog over Bangkok. Both major parties, Democrats and Pheu Thai are under pressure to negotiate and even haggle with the different factions within their ranks. For some, the price will be high, and a few could suffer setbacks.
Pheu Thai will fight tooth and nail to maintain its political supremacy. However, the influential factions in Pheu Thai are under pressure from the military to "defect". During visits to the provinces by Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, there were meetings held with major political figures in respective areas. Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak is also rumoured to be courting local politicians. Both are thought to be looking to set up a political party with other veteran politicians which could include rounding up those leaving Pheu Thai.
The Democrats on the other hand, seem more confident many of its members who joined the then People's Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) will return. But the option for PDRC stalwarts to set up a new party is still open. The determining factor could be the result of a possible challenge to dethrone party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva in the near future.
By the end of April, the picture will become clear. If Pheu Thai is weakened and ends up smaller, enough for the estimated final tally after the election to be well under the 200-seat mark, then we could see smaller parties trying to gain traction by gobbling up ex-MPs available on the market. Other legal mechanisms will be imposed to further incapacitate political parties and their activities.
But if Pheu Thai and the Democrats can keep the majority of their politicians, then a reverse magnet will draw others due to the resources and a greater potential to get elected -- disappointing the military regime. After which the political party onslaught could be in full swing without any legal pretence.