Now that President Donald Trump has officially withdrawn the US from the Iran Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the world has to figure out how to live with that decision. Strategic reappraisals are taking place in Tehran, Europe and, most importantly, Moscow.
There are only two leaders who are happier today than they were yesterday: One is Mr Trump himself; the other is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Tearing up the Iran deal was Mr Trump's call, but it would not have happened without Mr Netanyahu's stubborn willingness to stand up to the world -- and especially Israel's own generally hawkish security experts.
The prevailing view among Israeli security experts remains one of pragmatic opposition to scrapping the deal. But Mr Netanyahu rejects that view as accepting an unstable status quo when more radical action could achieve lasting change that would enhance Israeli and global security. He may just be right.
In a recent interview, former premier Ehud Barak aired the consensus view: "Is it smarter to tear the deal apart or keep it in place?" His conclusion: "There's a lot of logic in maintaining it in place."
Mr Barak's rhetorical question recalls something I heard last October from Isaac Ben Israel, a retired major general who now heads the National Council for Space Research and chairs the Department of Security Studies at Tel Aviv University. "Before the deal, Iran was two months away from having enough fissile material to complete its project," he told me. "It had enriched uranium, not only 3.5% but also 19.7%. This was acquired despite an international sanctions regime. If the deal collapses, is it likely that more sanctions will deter Iran from resuming its project?"
These comments reflect considered expert opinion more broadly. But decades in office have convinced Mr Netanyahu he knows more, and sees further, than his advisers and generals. After all, it was against the better judgement of the same experts that Mr Netanyahu made a long-odds bet on Mt Trump winning the presidency in 2016. Not only was Mr Trump electable, he wagered, but for the first time there would be a US president who saw the dangers of Iran in his way.
After Mr Trump's Iran decision, Mr Netanyahu no doubt feels vindicated. It appears the two leaders now share the same playbook. But what happens next is crucial. For both Mr Trump and Mr Netanyahu, scrapping the Iran deal is only a first step to a bigger goal.
If Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, reacts with threats or a visible move to restart Iran's nuclear weapons programme, a devastating, American-backed Israeli military response will likely follow. Mr Netanyahu doesn't want this (and it's unlikely Mr Trump does either). What they want in the short-term is regime change in Tehran. This does not mean an Iraq-style invasion; Mr Trump would never have the public support for that. But tough new US sanctions could destabilise the Iranian regime. So, too, would Iranian casualties and military humiliations of the kind Israel is presently inflicting on Iranian proxies in Syria.
Mr Trump and Mr Netanyahu can't do this alone. Mr Netanyahu is to fly to a meeting with Mr Putin today. Mr Netanyahu will tell Mr Putin that Russia and the US now have a once in a century chance to wipe away dysfunctional borders and redraw the Middle East map into mutually acceptable spheres of influence. Russia has its own strategic interests in Syria: It wants to keep President Bashar al-Assad in power and project military influence in the region through its air and naval bases there. But Mr Netanyahu will tell him they are not necessarily inimical to US or Israeli interests. Mr Putin may want to stand by Iran to the end, but that seems unlikely; the Russian leader is in the Middle East as an opportunity seeker, not a bodyguard for the Ayatollah or even the Syrian president at any price.
A Middle East without a "Death to America" government in Tehran -- or a Hezbollah in Lebanon -- has been a key US interest since Ronald Reagan's time. Mediterranean seaports in Syria have been a Russian dream since Peter the Great. And brokering a deal like this has been Mr Netanyahu's goal from the day Mr Trump entered the White House.
Back in October, Ben Israel, the retired general, dismissed the Trump-Netanyahu plan to end the Iranian nuclear deal as impractical. "They are two people who have their own opinion," he said. "In both cases, it is not shared by their professional advisers and intelligence communities." That is still true. But what Mr Trump and Mr Putin have to consider is a bigger picture. Expert opinion is important, but Mr Netanyahu is betting that sometimes great deals just take two (or even three). - Bloomberg